Libya, peace, oil and the role of Turkey, Russia, Egypt and the USA
What changes after the peace, the ceasefire announced in Libya by Serraj and Saleh. Facts, comments, analyzes and scenarios
Fayez al-Serraj, head of the Tripoli government, and Agila Saleh, president of the Tobruk parliament in eastern Libya, yesterday announced a ceasefire in Libya. The announcement comes after a few weeks of negotiations favored by the United Nations and the United States. The agreement will pave the way for new elections in March. But the real agreement, writes La Stampa , is between Russia and Turkey. What is certain is that the energy dossier is the basis of the agreement ( here the in-depth analysis of Start Magazine ).
True peace or fictitious peace? And what changes for Italy? These questions are answered by Libyan experts and foreign policy columnists.
THE ANALYSIS OF NEGRI
"Prudence is a must but for once good news arrives from Libya – wrote Alberto Negri, former special foreign correspondent of the newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore – the parallel announcement from both Tripoli and Cyrenaica of a ceasefire it is not yet an agreement but it can become one. However, this is a formidable step towards silencing the guns and initiating political and diplomatic negotiations. The Libyans decide, in particular General Khalifa Haftar, but also the international powers involved who have fueled this war where Libyan energy resources are at stake but also power relations in the Mediterranean ".
WHAT CHANGES FOR ITALY
What will be the impact for our country? "For Italy – according to Negri – a ceasefire is positive: it contains Erdogan's aims in Libya, which has taken over Tripolitania, paves the way for new agreements in the Mediterranean, puts the country back in economic activity and perhaps can also allow other agreements to contain migratory flows and restore order to the Fourth Shore. Our diplomacy in Tripoli has worked for this with great effort and attention, having behind them governments that have often distinguished themselves over the years for controversial initiatives or for the lack of initiative and a public opinion unwilling to reflect on national interests and foreign policy ".
THE SCENARIOS OF MERCURIES
Will it hold peace? “This peace could become substantial and lasting. Much will depend on the role of external actors, especially Turkey which supports al Serraj, Egypt and the "United Arab Emirates which finance and arm General Kalifa Haftar – replied Michela Mercuri, author of essays on Libya and professor of history Contemporary Mediterranean countries – Much will depend on how much they want to commit to stabilization. Stabilization that certainly suits everyone because it is linked to the recovery, or rather to the promise of the recovery of crude oil production by General Haftar. Oil that could open the way to a peace conditioned by the division of royalties between Cyrenaica and Tripolitania. It could represent the beginning of a path of reconciliation of the Libyan factions ”.
THE WEIGHT OF RUSSIA, TURKEY AND EGYPT
Russians, Turks and Egyptians have an interest in having Libya as peaceful as possible, according to Mercuri, "to resume oil production, expand the presence of bases and their respective military contingents and, as regards Turkey, manage migratory flows to blackmail the 'Italy and Europe ”.
THE ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES
What role did the US play? “Behind the scenes the United States were the protagonists and at the same time the long manus of the peace agreements between Saleh and al Serraj. Washington left it to Turkey because it is a NATO country that hosts strategic military bases for the US and has also exploited the agreement with the United Arab Emirates that resulted in the recent agreement with Israel to convince Haftar to rejoin the ranks and accept the agreement ”Concluded Mercuri.
ALL THE TURKISH THINGS OF QATAR IN LIBYA. GAGLIANO'S DEEPENING
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/libia-la-pace-il-petrolio-e-il-ruolo-di-turchia-russia-egitto-e-usa/ on Sat, 22 Aug 2020 08:25:49 +0000.