What will change for CDP and Atlantia with the ACS bullfight on Autostrade?
All the effects of the move (bluff?) Of the Spanish Acs group on Autostrade per l'Italia. Facts, numbers, rumors, comments and analyzes
Hot weeks are announced for the Aspi dossier and the purchases of the Atlantia share on the stock market leave no room for doubt about this scenario after the move by the Spanish group ACS. Here are all the details.
THE LETTER FROM ACS TO ATLANTIA FOR ASPI
Acs confirms that it has sent a letter to the board of Atlantia in which it expresses interest in participating, together with other investors (including CDP), in the acquisition of an Aspi shareholding, valued overall – based on public data – between 9 and 10 billion euros. This is what is reported by a note from the Spanish giant released in the morning at the request of the CNMV, the Iberian Consob.
WHAT HAPPENS ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE IN ATLANTIA
Atlantia continues to run after receiving an expression of interest from Acs to acquire a stake in Aspi. A move that, potentially, could mess up the cards of the dealership's current sale procedure on which the only offer in the field is that of Cdp-funds, which just before Easter presented a binding offer now being examined by the board of directors of Atlantia and its advisors.
THE NUMBERS ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE FOR THE ATLANTIA TITLE
It is precisely the prospect of a possible competition on the price or in any case, in general, of a reshuffling of the cards, to favor purchases on the stock market with the stock that after the blaze yesterday today opened still up by 2.5%, for then to slow down to + 1.3% at 16.5 euros, however at the highest levels since March 2020.
THE ASSESSMENTS OF ATLANTIA BY ACS
In the letter, Acs would initially value 100% of Aspi 9-10 billion, and its interest would be bound to the approval of the Pef by the Government, and to the approval of the competent authorities for the reorganization.
What about CDP?
In addition, Acs would be available for CDP and other investors to join the consortium and would like to see the Aspi-Abertis merger at a later date.
WHAT THE ACS LETTER SAYS
In the letter from the Spanish ACS group, which Radiocor was able to see, the patron of Real Madrid underlined the profitable partnership signed three years ago on the occasion of the Abertis dossier and precisely on the basis of the excellent relations built with the Italian holding company he would now have decided to propose himself for to purchase a substantial package from the country's dealership through the Spanish manufacturer: “The plan would then provide, at a later stage, to proceed with a merger between Aspi and Abertis to create a sample of motorways in Europe. Acs owns 50% minus one share of Abertis, partly directly and partly through the subsidiary Hochtief, the rest is in the Atlantia portfolio ”, Il Sole 24 Ore wrote .
THE RUMORS
An analyst who follows the companies in the sector and who prefers anonymity stresses to Start : “The Iberian group makes an offer only on the basis of public information. They give a range between 9 and 10 billion, when the consortium made up of Cdp, Macquarie and Blackstone did a due diligence with physical inspections and a lot of sworn plans and the valuation was more than 9 billion (between 9 and 10!) . It seems more like a useful move for the managers to buy time and stay in the saddle ”.
PEREZ'S MOVES ACCORDING TO THE SUN 24 HOURS
Perez, as mentioned, values the Italian group between 9 and 10 billion euros: potentially, therefore, more than what is offered by Cassa Depositi e Prestiti in partnership with Blackstone and Macquarie. Perez, on the other hand, also underlines in the letter that he is available and in favor of considering the entry into the game of other investors and among these he mentions Cdp, added Il Sole : "In short, he opens the door to an axis with Cassa in optics to create a European champion. Within which, one imagines, Cdp would not have an equity weight close to control, but in the event it could point to some "veto" on governance. This hypothesis, if pursued, would allow ACS to take over about 44% of Aspi to settle the score with Atlantia in the new motorway group. This would imply an outlay of 4.5 billion in the event of a valuation close to 10 billion. In this regard, it should be noted that the Spanish manufacturer will complete the sale of Cobra plus other industrial assets to Vinci within the year for a consideration of 4.9 billion euros. In perspective, therefore, it would also have the resources to deal with the operation ".
THE EFFECTS OF ACS ON THE TIMING OF THE OPERATION ACCORDING TO CORRIERE DELLA SERA
The Spanish interest will eventually lengthen the time of the sale, Corriere della Sera remarked: "With all due respect to the Minister of Transport Enrico Giovannini who said he hopes the issue will soon be resolved to allow the company to focus on investments" .
THE JOY OF THE TCI FUND
The hypothesis of an offer by Acs, considered an improvement in the upper part of the fork, triggers the Tci fund, shareholder of Atlantia, which asks the board to evaluate it independently because the Spanish manufacturer "seems willing to offer a higher price than Cdp for Aspi and are clearly a superior industrial partner compared to Blackstone and Macquarie ». "This is the same fund – underlined Corriere della Sera – which voted in favor of the demerger project – an alternative to the sale of the direct stake to Cassa Depositi and funds – rejected by the last shareholders' meeting of Atlantia for votes against of Edizione, the holding of the Benettons, and of the Crt foundation, pivot of the reorganization operation with Cdp also in the capital of the institute headed by Fabrizio Palermo ”.
GOODBYE ITALIAN CONTROL WITH PEREZ SECOND REPUBLIC
“It is easy to predict – wrote Repubblica – that post-merger control of Aspi-Abertis will pass into Spanish hands, given that Acs has said it is willing to buy a large portion of the Italian company. Therefore, at the base of this manifestation of interest that has reached the Cesarini area lies the never dormant desire of the Spaniards to conquer the Italian motorways. Just as they tried to do in 2006 when Gilberto Benetton and Gianni Mion agreed to the disguised sale of Autostrade to Abertis, which was then smashed by the Prodi government and Minister Di Pietro. But fifteen years later the Spaniards try again ”.
THE JUDGMENT OF THE ANALYSTS
Equita analysts point out that on the one hand, the interest of Acs would not be on the entire 88% stake in Aspi held by Atlantia, as opposed to the offer of Cdp-funds, while the initial valuation would be 4-15 % higher than that of CDP (adjusted for guarantees and potential relief for Covid-19).
WHAT THE EQUITA REPORT SAYS
“It will be important to verify which share Acs would like to acquire of Aspi, if it will be joined by other funds in the deal and what adjustments it will make to the valuation of Aspi after any due diligence. – adds the broker – The merger of Aspi with Abertis would be positive for the latter, allowing it to extend the duration of the concessions. Based on our calculations, if in the future the Aspi-Abertis merger and Acs were to keep the same stake as Atlantia in the new Abertis, it would have to acquire a 42-44% stake in Atlantia ”.
THE SCENERY
In any case, the board of directors of the infrastructural holding – supported by its own advisors – will also examine the expression of interest of Acs in parallel with the binding proposal of Cdp-funds. "Hot" weeks are announced for the dossier and the purchases on the Atlantia stock are the direct consequence.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/smartcity/che-cosa-cambiera-per-cdp-e-atlantia-con-la-corrida-di-acs-su-autostrade/ on Fri, 09 Apr 2021 10:33:47 +0000.