The grain war in Ukraine
The destruction and theft of grain by the Russians in Ukraine threatens global food security. Facts, numbers and analysts' forecasts on crops and exports
Rising prices but also serious repercussions on global food security. This is the alarm raised by Ukraine, where the Russians are not only destroying crops and factories, but also raiding wheat.
In fact, one of the latest news released by Ukrinform reports that in the past few hours a Russian missile attack hit a grain silo in the Dnipropetrovsk region (in eastern Ukraine), destroying the facility.
MISSILE ATTACKS
The news site Ukrinform reported the words of Valentyn Reznichenko, head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional military administration, who spoke of "another missile attack in the Synelkove district".
"The missile – says Reznichenko – hit the silo, destroying the grain deposit". According to preliminary information, there are no victims.
BREED OF WHEAT
In addition to such attacks, Ukraine also reported massive theft of grain by the Russian army in occupied areas on Thursday.
All this, the Ukrainian government recalled, threatens global food security already suffering due to the interruptions in spring sowing and the blockade of Ukrainian ports.
When questioned about the allegations by Reuters , the Kremlin said it had no information on the matter.
THE ALARM OF THE FOREIGN MINISTER
In particular, according to reports from the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, the expropriation of crops took place in the Kherson region, whose main city has been occupied by Russian forces since the first days of the invasion.
"The looting of grain from the Kherson region, as well as the blocking of shipments from Ukrainian ports and the extraction of shipping routes, threaten the food security of the world – said the minister – We demand that Russia stop illegal grain theft. , unlock Ukrainian ports, restore freedom of navigation and allow the passage of merchant ships ”.
HOW MUCH WHEAT WAS STOLEN
According to a statement by the Ukrainian Attorney General's Office, quoted by Reuters , Russian soldiers took 61 tons of wheat away from an agricultural enterprise in the Zaporizhzhia region of southern Ukraine on 26 April.
According to Radio Free Europe , Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Agriculture Taras Vysotskiy said on Saturday that Russian forces had stolen "several hundred thousand tons" of wheat.
Vysotskiy, speaking on Ukrainian national TV, then added that he feared that even a large part of the 1.5 million tons of grain stored in the occupied territory may have been stolen: "Today, there is evidence that several hundred thousand tons of wheat were taken from the regions of Zaporizhzhya, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk ”.
For the Minister of Agriculture, Mykola Solskyi, thefts have increased in the past two weeks.
THE BARN OF EUROPE (AND NOT ONLY)
According to data from the International Grains Council, reported by Reuters , in the 2020-2021 season, Ukraine was the world's fourth largest exporter of wheat, selling 44.7 million tons abroad. The volume of exports fell sharply after the Russian invasion.
SOWING AND HARVEST 2022
Ukraine is divided into 24 regions and on Friday, Reuters reported, the Ministry of Agriculture said that 6 of these had completed the sowing of wheat in early spring, despite the Russian invasion.
The ministry has not released forecasts for the 2022 wheat harvest, but analysts forecast production of 41.4 million tons this year, less than half of the 86 million tons in 2021.
Also according to the news agency, the consultancy APK-Inform said that 2022-2023 wheat exports could total 33.2 million tons against the 45.5 million expected for the 2021-2022 season which ends in June. .
Meanwhile, Coldiretti 's analysis of the trend in prices at the Chicago Board of Trade shows that around two months of war the price of wheat has increased by 22%.
THE RISKS FOR FOOD SAFETY
“Through its illegal actions, Russia is robbing not only Ukraine but also consumers abroad. The United Nations – warns the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry – estimates that about 1.7 billion people could face poverty and hunger due to food shortages as a result of a large-scale war waged by Russia against Ukraine ”.
According to 2020 data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity , Russia and Ukraine account for almost 29% of global wheat exports, feeding between 600 and 800 million people who are mainly in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
BECAUSE UKRAINIAN WHEAT IS DIFFICULTLY REPLACEABLE
To solve the wheat shortage, countries, especially in Africa , have begun to look to India which, although it is the second largest producer of wheat in the world, exports only a small part of its crop, which has been put at risk this year by a severe drought.
The Indian government must, in fact, maintain the difficult balance between supply and demand. As we read on France24 , it needs about 27.5 million tons of wheat for the vast food assistance program that usually feeds more than 80 million people.
However, India is not the only one experiencing difficulties related to climate change. China's Agriculture Minister Tang Renjian also said last month that the winter wheat harvest will be "likely poor, hampered by floods and planting delays."
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/la-guerra-del-grano-in-ucraina/ on Mon, 02 May 2022 09:57:52 +0000.