Could Venezuela take advantage of the current chaos and annex Guyana?
Tensions over a long-standing border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana are escalating again, amid an increasingly volatile international environment and with the US's role in South America increasingly called into question.
The conflict, which has lasted for decades , originates from Venezuela's claim to Essequibo, a region of western Guyana that is sparsely populated but rich in resources and mainly characterized by jungle, which includes almost two thirds of the territory of the former British colony. Maduro's saber strike follows world-class oil discoveries made by Exxon in Guyana's territorial waters. Venezuela's territorial claim includes the waters off the Essequibo coast, which contains many of these oil discoveries. The latest flare-up is a desperate attempt by the Maduro regime to access urgently needed resources while distracting the Venezuelan population from the country's dire economic conditions.
The Essequibo dispute dates back to 1830, when Venezuela separated from Gran Colombia to become an independent sovereign state. In 1835, the British Empire sent German-born explorer Robert Herman Schomburgk to map Guyana and draw a border with Venezuela. The border drawn by Schomburgk sparked protests in Venezuela, with Caracas claiming that Britain was invading the country's territory.
This event started the territorial dispute, which to this day remains unresolved to the satisfaction of both parties. Various attempts at arbitration, including the Arbitration Award of 1899, the Geneva Agreement of 1966, the Port of Spain Protocol of 1970 and the Good Offices Agreement of 1990, have failed to resolve the dispute satisfactorily.
Maduro's latest round of attacks began after Guyana launched its first-ever oil auction with 14 offshore blocks up for bid, with eight bids received, including from energy multinationals Exxon and TotalEnergies. The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry, from Caracas, released a statement earlier this month (in Spanish) saying that “Guiana's arrogant and hostile position, which denies dialogue and diplomacy, is the greatest obstacle to achieving of a solution."
The ministry then stated: “Guyana once again shows itself as a subordinate government, hostage to the transnational ExxonMobil, which prevents it from resuming a sovereign dialogue with Venezuela.”
The statement also states that:
“We alert the international community of the intentions of the United States to create, in our peace zone of Latin America and the Caribbean, a military base in the Republic of Guyana, to transform this country into the spearhead of an aggressive operation against the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, which would jeopardize the peace and stability of the entire region. The people and government of Venezuela, united in the defense of the homeland, will not give in or be intimidated by pressure, blackmail or threats when it comes to defending the sacred homeland."
The Guyana government in Georgetown is refusing to participate in meetings proposed by Maduro, and rightly so, having referred the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for resolution. The International Court of Justice has been handling the territorial dispute at Guyana's request since 2018, and in a 2020 ruling said it had jurisdiction over the matter. Then, in an April 2023 ruling, the Court found admissible the preliminary objections raised by Venezuela in a June 2022 brief, which essentially challenged the ICJ's jurisdiction over the dispute. Since then, the Court has made no further material statements on the matter. Thus, with respect to international law, the matter is closed and settled in favor of Georgetown.
Guyana has been the destination for refugees fleeing Venezuela due to the crisis precipitated by endemic corruption and extreme mismanagement of the economy and the financially crucial oil industry by Maduro's autocratic regime. It is estimated that of the more than 7 million Venezuelans who have fled the country since 2015, approximately 100,000 have settled in Guyana, equivalent to approximately one-eighth of the country's population. That raises fears that such a massive influx of Venezuelan refugees into the tiny former British colony, which has fewer than a million inhabitants, could spark civil dissent and other problems, especially if Maduro steps up his saber-rattling.
Guyana also finds itself in the unenviable position of being potentially incapable of militarily repelling a possible invasion of Essequibo by Venezuela . Compared to the Venezuelan military, which ranks third in South America after Colombia and Brazil, Guyana's defense forces are limited in size and equipment. While Venezuela possesses modern tanks, artillery and aircraft, as well as a sizable naval fleet, Guyana has very little modern warfare equipment. Venezuela then relies on military aid from Russia, Iran and China, while we know that the USA is less and less interested in South America and the EU confirms itself as the military worm it has always been. The United Kingdom, which was the country's colonial power, already finds itself heavily involved with military aid in Ukraine. Guyana can only rely on some American ally, but which one? Colombia and Brazil currently have two governments that are not interested in directly confronting Caracas.
Even Hamas has a presence in Venezuela. At a time when military force is reaffirming itself as a tool for resolving, or reviving, international conflicts, Guyana finds itself in a very fragile position. The only help can come from Maduro's desire to resume his oil exports to Europe and the USA, a fact that holds back his military aggression. Otherwise there would be a new master in Georgetown. All because of Biden's total inability in foreign policy, which has caused disasters that will be talked about for centuries to come.
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The article Could Venezuela take advantage of the current chaos and annex Guyana? comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/il-venezuela-potrebbe-approfittare-del-caos-attuale-e-annettere-la-guyana/ on Mon, 09 Oct 2023 10:30:43 +0000.