The International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA) released its latest report on the Iranian nuclear program on 5 June. The outcome of the checks is alarming: not only has Tehran increased the quantity of uranium (low enrichment) in its possession by almost eight times, reaching 1,571.6 kilograms, but it has also denied inspectors from the United Nations agency to access nuclear power plants to check what is happening inside. This new limitation adds to Tehran's usual ban on accessing some military sites, such as Parchin, where tests are known to have been conducted to verify the effects of an atomic explosion.
As is known, after the US withdrawal from the Jpopoa, the Islamic Republic announced the decision to reduce its commitments in compliance with the agreement signed in Vienna in 2015. Small detail, however, Tehran has never announced, like the White House, the will to withdraw from the agreement, and is therefore still formally totally bound by UN resolution 2231. Resolution which, for the record, Tehran has never fully respected, given that it has freely continued to test missiles capable of carrying a nuclear device, contrary to the provisions of attachment B of resolution 2231.
So why has Iran not completely abandoned the agreement on its nuclear program, as done by the United States? The answer is simple, because it has full advantage to remain within it, especially considering that, according to what is foreseen in the agreement wanted by Obama, the UN call for bids on the sale of weapons to the Islamic Republic will expire on 18 October 2020. US Secretary of State Pompeo then launched a diplomatic campaign to renew the embargo on Tehran and recently said he was confident that this will happen .
Washington is trying to renew the ban on arms exports to Tehran, by means of a clause of the Jpopoa which provides, in case of non-respect of the agreements by Tehran, that sanctions against the Republic can be re-entered Islamic. China and Russia, however, do not seem willing for now to follow the United States on the issue, while the EU is still hesitant about what to do.
Having said that, the EU should think about the wisest choice for the future of its relations with Iran. Lasting peace is impossible with the current Jpopoa structure. If the arms embargo were extended, Iran would probably declare the nuclear agreement definitively dead, thus opening the way to greater realism, and to new negotiations with the United States, which include not only some nuclear aspect, but also hot topics such as the Iranian regional posture, terrorism, Israel and the missile program. As reported by Atlantico Quotidiano , an indirect dialogue between Washington and Tehran on various issues is already underway, which could turn into real negotiations if Trump won the election again in November. The question to ask therefore remains only one: which side does the EU want to be on?
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/lultimo-rapporto-aiea-sul-nucleare-iraniano-mentre-si-avvicina-la-scadenza-dellembargo-sulle-armi-a-teheran/ on Wed, 10 Jun 2020 04:09:00 +0000.