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The meeting of the BRICS and the creation of a new world economic order (by C.A. Mauceri)

Now the war in Ukraine has increasingly taken on the tone of an advertising spot:

in an interview, the general and chief of Ukrainian military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov, allegedly stated that in a few weeks the war will undergo a turning point in favor of the invaded people and to be certain that within a few months Ukraine will return to the borders it had in the 1991.

Too bad that the news from the front offers a completely different scenario: the Ukrainians, despite the billions of dollars worth of weapons arriving from all over the planet, continue to retreat (a "tactical" decision, "to obtain a strategic victory, our command has decided to regroup on new positions ”, Budanov allegedly said).

The first reflection is: since when did the "secret" services speak on television and on social networks? And then. What sense would it make to tell your opponents what you want to do and what you are doing strategically?

A situation that is ridiculous and which, perhaps, should serve to distract attention from what is happening in the rest of the planet.

In recent days, the meeting of the BRICS countries was held: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. A very important meeting in absolute terms and in this particular moment.

In absolute terms, the desire to make this group an alternative to the G7, the group of the most industrialized countries, is now evident. And the numbers are on their side. The five BRICS countries represent 40 percent of the world population and 23 percent of global GDP. It is therefore natural that they are no longer willing to play a secondary role in global governance managed, up to now, almost exclusively by Western countries.

But that's not all: it is yet another step towards a shift east of the center of gravity of the global economy. It is no longer a question of "large emerging countries". These are countries that are growing at a rate that Western countries (EU and USA in particular) are unable to cope. And who, despite significant differences and political interests that do not always agree, are well aware of their potential. The goal of the last meeting was "to inject positive energy into the world plagued by turmoil and challenges", as the Chinese Foreign Ministry declared when presenting the event.

That the economy is moving east is also shown by the news of the possible creation of a "BRICS Plus", that is an enlarged group including other countries (Argentina, Mexico, Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other). A scenario yet to be defined and on paper quite complex but very interesting: of the 14 countries that should become part of the BRICS Plus, when the UN condemned the invasion of Ukraine, seven voted in favor of this decision, six they abstained and only one voted against. Among the BRICS, however, only Bolsonaro's Brazil at the UN formally condemned the invasion, China voted against, India and South Africa abstained.

Speaking of "war" in Ukraine. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, sitting around the table (virtual, as the meeting took place via videoconference) with Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was the opportunity to demonstrate that Russia, despite the sanctions of Western countries, is not at all in difficulty and that it is not isolated (as the sanctions imposed would have us believe). The ruble continues to be a strong currency against the US dollar (but this is not mentioned) and Putin announced that he is working on the creation of a currency for international trade based on the basket of currencies of the BRICS countries. In practice, the end of the dollar as a reference currency for exchanges.

The B RICS message to the rest of the world is clear. “No to sanctions. No to the expansion of NATO. Yes to globalization. Yes to dialogue for an innovation-driven economic recovery ”. On the eve of the Summit, Xi Jinping reiterated that, in his opinion, the world order is now multipolar, adding that the sanctions against Russia are "arbitrary" and "a boomerang" (and according to the numbers that are occurring in Europe you have to believe him).

All important aspects. And not just from an economic point of view. For example, in responding to the aired food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, the Chinese reiterated that the BRICS could solve the problem effortlessly.

BRICS governments are very divided and different from each other. But united by a common "enemy": Western economic primacy. And since the growth of these countries is above all economic (after all, even the EU was originally a mere economic union), everything else, all mutual problems take a back seat. Just think of the relationship between Beijing and New Delhi. India is part of the 'Quad' (with the United States, Japan and Australia) and the new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework launched by Biden, which aim to balance Chinese hegemony. And Modi was invited to participate as a guest at the last G7. But this should not be misleading: the Indian government is very convenient to receive Russian oil at discounted prices after the European sanctions.

The sanctions imposed on Russia could turn out to be a geopolitical and strategic mistake of historical dimensions: None of the BRICS countries has joined the Western economic sanctions against Russia. The reason why the BRICS countries have all refused to adhere to such sanctions is because they share the same dislike for the unilateral sanctions imposed by the West , ”wrote a Chinese newspaper. For the BRICS countries (and for many of the BRICS Plus aspirants) " It is now clear that Western powers safeguard their hegemonic interests through sanctions, with no regard for the interests of emerging and developing economies and to bring new uncertainties and risks in the world. The hegemony of the dollar is behind the sanctions ”. The truth is that the sanctions imposed on Russia have accelerated the de-dollarization process around the world. It is not only the BRICS, but many other developing economies too, who realize the need to reduce the dollar's role in global payments.

In bilateral contexts, discussions of exploring new currencies for trade settlement are becoming increasingly popular and common, an indication that the US abuse of its financial power has fueled the de-dollarization trend .

Faced with this common goal, everything else takes a back seat. The tensions between India and China, in 2020, turned into a "border clash" . Now, speaking of what is happening in Ukraine these days, none of the BRICS leaders has uttered the word "war", they preferred to use euphemisms that recall "peace missions" and "international police actions" (conducted up to recently from Western countries in the Middle East and always presented as great successes, but what happened in Afghanistan leaves no doubt).

Keep the Ukrainian president talking everywhere (always dressed in military green as if he were on the front, even when he attends meetings where everyone else is wearing normal clothes – but after all, we must not forget that he is first and foremost a man entertainment – by the way, since it is now popping up everywhere, has anyone ever calculated its share?) and now spreading the news that the secret services would already know everything about the evolution of the war in Ukraine is just an attempt (yet another and somewhat ridiculous) to take the eyes of Westerners away from how the world is changing. Above all due to bad geopolitical choices by Western leaders.

C. Alessandro Mauceri


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The article The meeting of the BRICS and the creation of a new world economic order (by CA Mauceri) comes from ScenariEconomici.it .


This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/la-riunione-dei-brics-e-la-creazione-di-un-nuovo-ordine-economico-mondiale-di-c-a-mauceri/ on Sun, 26 Jun 2022 10:30:26 +0000.