China: Manufacturing forecast indicators are positive. Is the industry starting again?
Good news for China from manufacturing forecast indicators . The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in June 2024 from 51.7 in May, beating the market forecast of 51.2 and marking the highest reading since May 2021.
It was the eighth consecutive month of increased industrial activity, as output growth hit a 2-year high, while new orders increased for an 11th month.
Furthermore, purchasing levels by companies increased to the highest level in over 3 years , leading to a further build-up of purchasing inventories. Furthermore, overseas sales continued to expand, but the pace of growth was the slowest in 6 months.
The decline in employment eased, with companies expanding their workforces at about the same rate as those shrinking them, and backlogs of work increased for a fourth month. Delivery times have lengthened for the first time since February, due to material shortages and some production constraints, but also because demand has increased.
As for inflation, input prices recorded their biggest increase in two years, while selling prices rose for the first time in six months. Ultimately, sentiment fell to 4-1/2 year lows, due to increased competition and market uncertainty. Here is the relevant graph:
Therefore, despite sanctions, duties and export restrictions, Chinese industry is optimistic and sees an expansion in production activity. However, China is growing, or at least this is the government's communication. Because Chinese statistical data should always be taken with a grain of salt.
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The article China: manufacturing forecast indicators are positive. Is the industry starting again? comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/cina-gli-indicatori-previsionali-manifatturieri-sono-positivi-riparte-lindustria/ on Mon, 01 Jul 2024 09:00:18 +0000.