DOES LOCKDOWN SERVE TO LIMIT THE SPREAD OF COVID-19?

Since I like to spoil the "Spoiler" films I can immediately give you the result of a Lancet research on the effects of government policies in the spread of Covid-19 which is quite clear:

These findings suggest that more restrictive public health practices may actually be associated with less transmission and better outcomes. However, in our analysis, comprehensive blockages and widespread COVID-19 testing were not associated with reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality.

The Lancet, rightly or wrongly, is considered a bit the bible of medical research, and in the paper in question highlights some facts that could be interesting and others less so. For example:

• the fact that the incidence of mortality is much higher in obese people should lead to a NOT negative communication on the performance of sports, indeed. instead of the "Scooter Bonus" a "Running Bonus" or an exercise bike bonus would have been healthier …
• Unfortunately, the average age of the population has an important effect on the number of deaths;
• this is less useful, and there is actually a lower incidence of severe cases among smokers. Too bad that smoking causes different and more serious problems …
• social disparity also has a very strong effect in defining the number of deaths. The strong "middle class" and the presence of scarce disparities seem to protect against death from Covid-19-

But let's read the paper again, its summary:

Rapid border closures, and complete lockdowns and wide-ranging testing have not been associated with COVID-19 mortality per million people (positive or negative). However, the complete isolation (RR = 2.47: 95% CI: 1,085.64) and the reduction of the country's vulnerability to biological threats (i.e. high scores on the global health security scale for the environment at risk) ( RR = 1.55; 95% CI: 1,132.12) were significantly associated with increased patient recovery rates.

The problem is that countries and people cannot be locked up forever. And if the coronavirus has become endemic in the population, the "success" of a temporary lockdown would inevitably be short-lived. In the Netherlands, numbers were announced earlier that are already around 15% higher than in the previous 24 hours. But if the endemicity of the disease makes the temporary lockdown useless, do we have a plan B that is not living ab aeterno closed at home without meeting anyone, without returning to see a concert? In Italy certainly NO, and this is the biggest cola not only of the Conte government, but, above all, of the entire scientific class that every day is invasive on our TV without ever seriously explaining anything and, from what you see, without not even look for a real solution outside the vaccine (if it works… 9 on the one hand and some particular case (like hyperimmune serum) on the other. No one really comes out of this story well.

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IS THE article THE LOCKDOWN TO LIMIT THE SPREAD OF COVID-19? comes from ScenariEconomici.it .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/il-lockdown-serve-a-limitare-la-diffusione-del-covid-19/ on Thu, 12 Nov 2020 10:15:58 +0000.