France could support Beirut’s armed forces if they deployed in southern Lebanon, facing Israel
France would support the Lebanese Armed Forces if Beirut decided to deploy them on a security mission on the southern border with Israel, a move that could prompt Paris to intervene on another hot front, according to a Paris official quoted by Breaking Defense .
France, like the rest of the world, has been carefully watching the deteriorating security situation along the border as Israeli forces and the Iranian-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah exchange fire, sparking growing concerns of a war wider.
The French official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, suggested there had been discussions focused on the intervention of the Lebanese Armed Forces at the border to quell the violence.
“Nothing will happen without a political green light,” the official said, “but we must be ready to facilitate a greater LAF presence in South Lebanon to contribute to the security of the Lebanese people and the sovereignty of the Lebanese state and territory.”
The official spoke to Breaking Defense late last month, before tensions escalated between Israel and Hezbollah, which effectively has free access to southern Lebanon. In recent days, Israel has approved war plans for a broader conflict in Lebanon, while Hezbollah's leadership has responded with threats to widen the conflict.
However, this does not weaken Paris' position: France believes that a deployment of Lebanese government forces on the southern border could serve to calm the situation, as neither Israel nor Hezbollah would want to trigger a wider conflict by killing government forces.
Soldiers of the Lebanese Army
France is "at the side of the LAF (the Lebanese army), and we thought of preparing various initiatives, always to support the political decision," the official said.
Among those initiatives, the official said could be the rescheduling of an international conference in Paris that would push friendly nations to offer security contributions to the Lebanese armed forces, particularly to support operations in the south. A conference to support the LAF more broadly was supposed to take place in February, but was cancelled.
The official stressed that there are "many discussions between us in Beirut or the countries and other capitals" about how to secure the southern part of the country "and our narrative is the same."
“I think [and] this is my personal opinion, that we would like the Lebanese state to be able to assert its sovereignty over its territory. But, of course, there are many challenges. So we have to be prepared,” the official said. “We are fully aware that we cannot be too naive or too optimistic. But the story is full of surprises. And if something happens and there's a window of opportunity, we can't miss it.”
A very dangerous situation
If the Beirut government decides to send troops, retired Lebanese Army Gen. Khalil Helou said Hezbollah could have two basic responses: Either it reacts violently and “there will be a clash between the LAF and Hezbollah,” which it could also endanger UN troops stationed in southern Lebanon. Or Hezbollah accepts the deployment “on a superficial level, to reach [a] ceasefire [with Israel] and stop the war of attrition, [but] without actually respecting that decision,” he said.
Although Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah recently delivered a fiery speech threatening a war that would extend to the Mediterranean, for months the Shiite group has appeared wary of opening a broader war with Israel.
But the rhetoric has also heated up among Israeli officials, and deploying the LAF to the border would also put them in greater danger of being hit by Israeli attacks – something that has already happened more than two dozen times in recent months. To reduce the chances of direct combat between the LAF and Israel, retired LAF Gen. Maroun Hitti said the border must be precisely marked and "should not be left vague, as in 2006."
Of course, the deployment of French assistance forces would take the problem to a completely different level, with the Paris troops risking finding themselves attacked either by Hezbollah on one side or by Israel on the other. In both cases the response would be unpredictable: in the past attacks on French troops in the area have led to resolute responses with bombing and missile attacks. What would happen if the conflict were with Israel? However, it is not certain that the French support would be directly in terms of men on the field, but could be limited to logistical and information support.
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The article France could support Beirut's armed forces if they deployed in southern Lebanon, ahead of Israel comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/la-francia-potrebbe-sostenere-le-forze-armate-di-beirut-se-si-schierassero-nel-sud-del-libano-davanti-ad-israele/ on Mon, 24 Jun 2024 06:00:36 +0000.