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The other great migration in the USA: from states governed by the Dems to those of the GOP

In the USA we often talk about the unstoppable migration from Mexico. However, the country is experiencing another similar phenomenon of migration, but internal, from the "blue" states, governed by Democrats, to the "red" ones, governed by Republicans. A movement well explained by the WSJ .

The U.S. population increased by 1.6 million between July 2022 and July 2023, with Southern states accounting for about 1.4 million of the growth. Driving the boom were Texas (473,453), Florida (365,205), Georgia (116,077), South Carolina (90,600) and Tennessee (77,512), but driving their growth was migration from other states .

Eight states recorded population declines, the largest in New York (-101,984), California (-75,423) and Illinois (-32,826). The blame lies with the flight of the population. California lost the most residents to other states (-338,371), followed by New York (-216,778), Illinois (-83,839), New Jersey (-44,666), Massachusetts (-39,149) and Maryland (-30,905) . The interesting thing is that the decline of the "blue" states would have been much worse if they did not welcome irregular migrants with open arms. The government of the Democrats is a disaster for demography. If not for foreign immigration, last year's population declines would have been much greater in California, New York, Illinois and Oregon. Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Washington would also lose population. Immigrants are an economic resource, but expansive welfare states have made them a burden to these states.

You don't need artificial intelligence to figure out what these states have in common: high taxes, burdensome business regulation, and inflated energy and housing prices. Most donor states also have a higher-than-average unemployment rate due to businesses relocating or expanding to other states. California and New Jersey have both seen significant increases in unemployment over the past year. Furthermore, Republican states know how to use federal funds much better .
An interesting natural experiment has been Washington state, which has welcomed tens of thousands of people from other states every year over the past decade. But since a 7% capital gains tax was introduced in 2021 for the highest earners, Washington has been losing residents to other states at an ever-accelerating rate: 15,276 in the past year. Could this be the reason, or is Seattle's crime problem a better explanation?

Migration brings even more inequality and further accentuates the incentive to migrate: if the wealthy or middle class leave states like Washington, New York or California, the remaining citizens will have to shoulder a greater tax burden, making the difference with the states receiving the migration. Likewise, red states will have a greater tax influx, due to the arrival of people with high incomes who, among other things, invest and take up homes there. So the gap between states will increase over time, and more and more citizens will be pushed to emigrate.

The solution would be to make even democratic states become republicans, but emigration accentuates political radicalism even more, generating a negative spiral from which there is no escape, at least for now.


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The article The other great migration in the USA: from states governed by the Dems to those of the GOP comes from Economic Scenarios .


This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/laltra-grande-migrazione-negli-usa-dagli-stati-governati-dai-dem-a-quelli-del-gop/ on Sun, 24 Dec 2023 12:59:20 +0000.