The situation in Libya has apparently changed due to the heavy military intervention of Turkey which, by resuming the Ottoman expansion policy in North Africa, on the one hand, however, has restarted the centuries-old opposition with Egypt, on the other it puts in the background the presence of Italy. We take an extract of the always well informed OFCS.Report, to which we send you for the complete article:

A few hours have passed and the scenario in Libya has changed once again. Egypt presented a plan for the ceasefire, which certainly did not appear out of nowhere. The agreement was signed by General Haftar who, in the meantime, within 24 hours withdrew troops from Tripoli demonstrating, yes, that he controls a loyal army, and by the Libyan House of Representatives (the Parliament of Tobruk). Sarraj, with Turkey's backing, has refused the deal for the time being. But Sarraj, the head of the government of national unity wanted by the UN, it is good to remember him, he does not have an actual army. At his side fight militiamen of all kinds, including mercenaries and jihadists brought to Libya by Erdogan. Sarraj's "power" derives in part from the support (or pseudo-such) of the international community and above all from Ankara and therefore from the Muslim Brotherhood.

The retreat of Haftar, seen by many as a defeat, is strategic and strongly desired internationally. According to authoritative sources inserted in the Libyan context, the reverse of Haftar came after the strong pressure from the United States, returned (or perhaps never left) to Libya. The issue became clearer when the White House National Security Council expressed hope that the Egyptian initiative on the Libyan crisis will lead to a ceasefire.

And, at the same time, Aguila Saleh, the president of the Libyan House of Representatives, has clearly said that Tripoli's refusal of the Egyptian plan will still bring war and clashes in the country, also indicating how the Turkish presence has significantly worsened the situation. But not only. Saleh also placed an emphasis on oil (one of the real reasons for the conflict between the parties in Libya), explaining that "the recovery of oil production is directly linked to the ceasefire". So, he added, "there is no oil with guns".

So the victory of Sarraj, who according to some would even be preparing to invade Cyrenaica, is not a definitive victory for Erdogan and, now we can say it, for his puppet of Tripoli, but only a passage desired by the USA who do not want a new one. outbreak of war that would risk seeing them involved. From here to November Trump wants to dedicate himself to his internal front, not to fight a new war abroad. Furthermore, peace, or at least a long-term divisional agreement, would allow Haftar to enjoy the huge intakes of Libyan oil.

It's Italy? Thanks to the mistakes of Di Maio and his predecessors, he is currently out of the game. If something of our influence in the region is saved it will be thanks to ENI. Billions of euros of twenty-year investments thrown to the wind by people without experience, without drawings and without balls.

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL on Tue, 09 Jun 2020 08:10:06 +0000.