South China Sea: China would react very harshly if the Philippines attempted to assert its sovereignty
Maritime confrontations with the Philippines could provoke "strong countermeasures" from China, observers have warned, as the rival South China Sea claimants continue their war of words over an alleged deal that Manila denies being part of.
Neither side appears willing to back down after China made public the transcript of what it said was a telephone conversation with a senior Philippine military official about " a new management model" of the Second Shoal of Thomas.
The submerged coral reef controlled by Manila – less than 200 nautical miles (370 km) from the Philippine island of Palawan – is part of the Spratly Islands chain, also claimed by Beijing as the Nansha Islands.
The disputed areas and maritime boundaries according to the Philippines
The Philippines denies the existence of any such deal with China and has warned the public against "falling into a false narrative." The agreement would have allowed Beijing to have the final say on the supply of the garrison located on Second Thomas Shoal, thus recognizing China's superior right. In the latest escalation of tensions, China's Foreign Ministry on Friday urged the Philippines to "stop violating China's rights and provoking China."
This came hours after Philippine National Security Advisor Eduardo Ano echoed Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro's call on Wednesday for the Philippine Foreign Ministry to "take appropriate action against individuals from the Chinese embassy… for violating Philippine law, particularly the Anti-Wiretapping Law, as well as for serious violations of diplomatic protocols and conventions.”
In a statement on Friday , Ano accused the Chinese embassy in Manila of “repeated acts of engaging in and spreading disinformation, disinformation and misinformation,” and called for the expulsion of the Chinese diplomats responsible. If the Philippines were to discover any similarities in its government or its military, we would probably see an internal cleanup. If Chinese counterparts were identified, they would presumably be expelled.
The Chinese embassy in Manila reportedly released a transcript of an alleged phone call between a Chinese diplomat and a Philippine naval officer to some media on Tuesday, sparking accusations of eavesdropping from outraged Philippine officials.
The accusation, however, did not match an earlier claim by Romeo Brawner, chief of staff of the Philippine Army, that the alleged recording was "a malign influence effort" by the ruling Chinese Communist Party and probably a “deep fake”.
“Transcripts can be easily fabricated and audio recordings can be produced using deep fakes. These reports are only intended to distract the Chinese Coast Guard from its continued aggressive behavior,” Brawner said.
In Beijing on Friday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Ano's statement "accurately demonstrates" that the Philippine side has "become weak in the face of facts and evidence."
“China solemnly requests the Philippine side to ensure the normal performance of duties by Chinese diplomatic personnel, stop violating China's rights and provoking China, and refrain from denying the facts or acting recklessly.” , he added.
China-Philippines clash in the South China Sea
Diplomatic relations at historic lows
Hu Bo, director of the Beijing-based think tank South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, said bilateral diplomatic ties had fallen to the "worst level" in decades. “Even at the time of the arbitration case [in The Hague], the administration of Benigno Aquino III did not deny the Second Thomas Shoal agreement,” Hu said.
He was referring to an arbitration case filed by Manila in 2013 to challenge Beijing's claims to almost all of the South China Sea under what it calls its historic 'nine-dash line'.
According to a 2013 report by news portal Inquirer.net, then-Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin told Chinese Ambassador Ma Keqing that the Philippines “would not violate the agreement not to build new facilities” on the Second Shoal of Thomas, after Beijing raised its concerns about Manila's plans to do so.
“Now the politics of the Philippines has been reversed, which represents a significant change from previous governments,” Hu said. “It is very rare for the two governments to stick to their version without any compromise. “China has been defensive, but if the Philippines continues to insist, I don't think China will show any mercy.” Ding Duo, a research associate at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, also said Beijing will take "strong countermeasures" against the Philippines.
The international tribunal in The Hague ruled in Manila's favor in 2016, but Beijing has refused to recognize the tribunal's decision.
Beijing cannot lose face
“China will certainly respond with strong countermeasures, both from the point of view of defending the rights of the sea, both from the point of view of national public opinion, and from the point of view of preventing other countries from following in the footsteps of the Philippines.”
In recent months, the two countries have had a series of clashes around the Second Thomas Shoal, with Manila accusing the Chinese coast guard of blocking resupply missions to a grounded warship hosting a handful of troops. Water cannons were used against Philippine ships and China was also accused of ramming the ships.
According to Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, Manila's "assertive transparency" in making these incidents public has put Beijing in trouble. “There is no way China will back down for domestic reasons, and there is no sign that the Philippines is abandoning the current strategy that Manila deems quite effective.”
Furthermore, there are many disputes over Chinese borders, from India to Vietnam. If China were to show weakness or were forced to give in in this sector there would be the risk of a real chain reaction of protests from India, for example. This makes it clear that, in the event that the Philippines attempted to assert its sovereignty over the disputed areas, the Chinese reaction would be very harsh.
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The article South China Sea: China would react very harshly if the Philippines tries to assert its sovereignty comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/mar-cinese-meridionale-la-cina-reagirebbe-molto-duramente-se-le-filippine-tentassero-di-affermare-la-propria-sovranita/ on Fri, 10 May 2024 16:13:12 +0000.