The Water War by C.A. Mauceri
A few years ago, together with other people, I wrote a book entitled War on Water (ed. Rosenberg & Sellier). It was 2016. Mine was a response to the forecasts and decisions made during the COP21 in Paris in Paris. The agreement signed by the state leaders and heralded from the rooftops as a solution to all environmental problems was a failure: it was not respected and did not produce concrete results.
The book spoke of problems related to water, not in general, but as an essential resource for life: from limited access for many populations to fresh and above all drinkable water reserves. And also of the geopolitical problems related to the management of water resources: the major reserves of fresh water are shared between two or more states. A reality that would require regulation on the use of this vital resource for life. In the absence of any agreement, it seemed likely that "wars over water" would escalate.
So it was. To date, none of the countries that claim to rule the planet has managed to propose serious rules for sharing this fundamental resource. International organizations have not succeeded either. And the wars for water are more and more numerous. This is confirmed by the latest Oxfam report regarding the availability of water in increasingly large and vulnerable areas in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Water-Dilemmas-Cascading-Impacts-of-Water-Insecurity-Briefing-Paper-EN.pdf (oxfamwash.org) The report talks about “a water crisis of epochal scope”. with 2 billion people worldwide without adequate access to water. A situation that could get worse: the world population that does not have constant access to drinking water could reach 3 billion by 2050. There are many consequences. It is estimated that there will be 216 million internal climate migrants, of which at least 86 million in sub-Saharan Africa alone. A fact that could be underestimated: United Nations forecasts speak of a billion environmental refugees by the end of the century. Yet, no one has bothered to define "environmental refugee", what are the rights of these people and what the host countries must and can do.
“Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions and the use of oil, coal and gas is leading to a terrible global water crisis, which must be addressed before it is too late for so many” said Paolo Pezzati, policy advisor on humanitarian emergencies of Oxfam Italy. "What we are facing is one of the most serious threats that humanity is facing and the poorest and least prepared countries are already paying the highest price, which paradoxically are often also the least responsible of polluting emissions".
Water resources will be increasingly contested and this could cause armed conflicts: "Globally, it is estimated that in the last 20 years the latter have quadrupled, compared to the period 1980-99", say Oxfam experts.
Few measures have been taken internationally to prevent these wars. Even from an economic point of view. Last year, donor countries to the United Nations funded just 32% of the $3.8 billion requested by the UN to ensure clean water and adequate sanitation in the worst-hit crisis areas. The consequences are plain to see of all. In Pakistan, the problems caused by the floods of recent months which devastated vast areas of the territory have not yet been resolved. In Beijing, China, some neighborhoods are collapsing: the soil is sagging at the rate of four inches a year due to over-abstraction of water from the underlying aquifer. The consequences are staggering: collapse of the railway system, roads and building foundations, as confirmed by an international team of scientists. Despite the gigantic North China Plain aquifer, Beijing is ranked as the fifth most water-stressed city in the world. It is proof of the dangers of water mismanagement. What is happening in Beijing is not an isolated case: the same is happening in some areas of Shanghai, Mexico City and California. Here, some areas of the Central Valley have dropped by a meter (and the central government, instead of thinking about solving these problems, is thinking about producing and selling or giving away weapons).
The United Nations predicts a global water deficit by 2030. Yet, nothing is being done to change this situation. More than two-thirds of the groundwater consumed worldwide is used for irrigation purposes in agriculture. The rest supplies drinking water to cities. But no one talks about the treatment of wastewater for irrigation (in Italy, the law would provide for it but it only happens in an infinitesimal percentage of cases). Similarly, we never talk about the consumption of "virtual water", the amount and type of water needed to produce a certain good.
In the past, aquifers served as a reserve, to allow regions and countries to overcome periods of drought and warm winters without sufficient snow to replenish rivers and streams. Now, however, to meet the ever-increasing water demand, central and local governments are tapping groundwater in an unsustainable way. In Africa, Eurasia and the Americas, everywhere more than it should. Some of these reserves have already been drained. The consequences also in terms of economic damage will be devastating. According to Richard Damania, one of the leading economists of the World Bank, economic growth in the most stressed areas of the world could record a six percent drop in GDP precisely because of the lack of water. For Damania, the United States is exemplary: farmers are withdrawing water at unsustainable rates from the High Plains or the Ogallala aquifer. As regions and nations face water shortages, there will be a decline in economic growth and a 'soaring food prices that will only increase the risk of violent conflict and cause large waves of migration.
There have already been wars over water all over the planet: in Yemen, the aquifers have been in crisis for years and, already in 2009, there had been riots over water. In Jordan, which relies on groundwater as its only source of water, water stress has increased following the arrival of more than half a million Syrian refugees in the country. Egypt and Ethiopia have repeatedly come close to armed confrontation at due to the use of the waters of the Nile.
For Jay Famiglietti, who led a study that used NASA satellites to record changes in the world's 37 major aquifers, "without sustainable groundwater supplies, global security is much more at risk." “As dry environments become more arid, groundwater will be increasingly relied on. The implications are simply staggering and need to be discussed internationally."
The United Nations knows it well: in the report on the development of water resources 2022, the researchers point out that conflicts attributable to causes such as pollution and, above all, the depletion of groundwater, which began between 2000 and 2019, have increased four times compared to those between 1980 and 1999. ” The impacts of climate change (e.g. droughts and sea level rise ) , food production and trade, conflict and migration are just a few examples of processes and issues that require a coherent multi – level groundwater policy ” , reads the document. unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000380976
Between 2000 and 2009, 94 were surveyed. Between 2010 and 2018, the figure reached 263”, reads the report. “If this trend is not reversed, with the increase in the population in the poorest areas of the world (the African population, currently estimated at around one billion and 200 million people, is destined to double by 2050) and the worsening consequences climate change, in the future more and more conflicts will be caused to gain access to water”.
Ismail Serageldin, former vice president of the World Bank, had already spoken of Water Wars in 1995. “ If the wars of the 20th century were fought for oil, those of the 21st century will have water as their object. From Israel to India, via Turkey, there are numerous outbreaks that could soon lead to real armed conflicts”.
Gigi Riva, one of the most authoritative war correspondents, in commenting on the 2018 UN report in l'Espresso , said: "For seven years there has been fighting in Syria and alongside the best known causes (ethnic, religious, power clash) also list drought. In the years immediately preceding the revolt against Bashar al Assad, the lack of rain and the lower flow of rivers decimated the crops, forcing a million and a half people to seek fortune in the inhabited centers in vain".
Five years have passed since Riva's article (and even more since the publication of our book) and the "wars on water" are an increasingly widespread reality. From Israel to India, passing through Turkey, up to Africa and then overseas, there are many outbreaks that could lead to real armed conflicts. All in a geopolitical scenario that no one seems to take into account: the large basins of fresh water controlled by a single country can be counted on the fingers of one hand. All others are shared between two or more states. All it takes is a spark to start a war. Not for oil or other natural resources. A War for Water.
C. Alessandro Mauceri
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The article The Water War by CA Mauceri comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/la-guerra-dellacqua-di-c-a-mauceri/ on Tue, 05 Sep 2023 07:00:20 +0000.