Let's look a bit towards the future, and what will happen with the exit from the health stage of Covid-19, especially economically and politically, relying on some Rabobank data.
First of all, let's quickly see what was essentially a Chinese problem has become a worldwide problem.
You can easily see how some countries are affected even more than China which was the cradle of them. Countries that still appear unaffected are just more backward than its spread or, simply, don't make significant revelations. The closures have led to a precipitate of internal and international transactions, with entire economic sectors that have literally closed their economies. The data of the fall, on IMF assessments are as follows, but it must be calculated that, starting from 2019 with a value of 100, a 10% drop is reaching 90, but subsequently growing by 10% brings back to 99, not 100 … ..
Despite all the necessary precautions to be taken, the only country with a real rebound capable of showing a V-shaped growth process is only India, no other country in 2021 will be able to compensate for the growth losses of 2020.
This will lead to a much poorer future, with less growth and strong social tensions. The only crisis comparable to the current one due to a drop in economic activity and an explosion in unemployment is the crisis of 1929, which continued until the late 1930s.
Indicators from China, such as those relating to car traffic, show that the post recovery is very uncertain and complex. At present, restaurants are still closed in all places, only in Germany is there a certain recovery, and flights are at 60% of the pre-crown period. Social distancing will produce significant economic damage until at least 2022.
In this situation, all governments have political problems to deal with. Some do it better, because they are more efficient or with a stronger social base, others less well. Trump also used the crisis's external drain tool, highlighting Chinese responsibilities. This justification is working because more and more Americans are unfavorable in Beijing.
So a strong trade war between the United States, and probably a large part of the West, and Beijing, can be expected, a conflict that will worsen the effects of the crisis and that will move to the limits of the cold war, if not the war waged. A non-positive perspective to which we are completely unprepared economically, politically and militarily.
The article WHAT AWAITS US, WITH THE MOST INTENSE ECONOMIC CRISIS AFTER THE GREAT DEPRESSION, comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/cosa-ci-aspetta-con-la-piu-intensa-crisi-economica-dopola-grande-depressione/ on Wed, 10 Jun 2020 19:51:04 +0000.