Will China succeed in replacing the US in relations with Arabia?
According to experts, the dispute between the United States and Saudi Arabia over oil production and Washington's diminishing influence in the Middle East offer China the opportunity to expand its presence in the region.
XI Jinping, winner of the CCP's third congress, is preparing to visit Saudi Arabia and the Middle East region just as the US seems to be retreating and losing interest in the area, if not in opposition to local countries. It appears that China is starting to fill a void in the region.
Xi's planned visit was announced by Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan after a virtual meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi last Thursday, but has not yet been confirmed by Beijing.
The announcement came in the midst of an oil dispute between the United States and Saudi Arabia, after Riyadh, long-time Washington's security partner but also part of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, brought members of the Opec + group of Oil producing countries to decide this month to cut oil production by as much as 2 million barrels per day in response to falling demand. This could drive gasoline prices up and have ripple effects in the US economy ahead of next month's midterm elections.
Many observers saw the decision as a slap in the face to the United States, amid growing tensions between Washington and Riyadh over issues ranging from human rights to Iran's nuclear program. According to some, the deterioration of ties with Saudi Arabia could cause Washington to lose influence in the Middle East to China, as seen in recent interactions between Beijing and Riyadh.
High-level virtual meetings between China and Saudi Arabia's foreign and energy ministers last week reaffirmed bilateral ties, and Beijing also expressed its support for Riyadh's membership of the BRICS, an association of emerging economies made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
In his meeting with Prince Faisal, Wang said China appreciates Saudi Arabia's pursuit of an independent energy policy and its active efforts to maintain the stability of the international energy market.
"The question now is whether the intensification of the rivalry between the United States and China will lead the latter to broaden its goals, including reducing US influence over the region's governments and increasing its own," he said. said Chas Freeman, former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia. "The United States is now, to one degree or another, alien to all key players in the Middle East."
The aftermath of US troops' withdrawal from Afghanistan last year left many in the Middle East to question America's ability to handle complex regional conflicts and its credibility in global security partnerships. Furthermore, the renewed "pivot to Asia" policy, centered on competition with China, has left Middle Eastern partners worried about US disengagement in the region.
"After two decades of failed military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, public opinion is also in favor of a less active US role in the Middle East," said Gedaliah Afterman, head of the Asian policy program at the Abba Eban Institute. for International Diplomacy of the Israeli Reichman University.
A survey conducted in nine Arab states in August by Arab Barometer, a research program based at Princeton University in the United States, found that only Moroccans prefer the United States to China. The other states involved in the survey were Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Palestine, Tunisia and Sudan.
"With the uncertainty surrounding US engagement in the Middle East, many countries in the region are increasingly wary of over-reliance on the US," Afterman said. This dynamic creates an opportunity for China to increase its involvement in the region ”.
"Many countries in the region see China as an important trading partner and a great power destined to remain in the near future."
So China enters the Middle East to fill the void that Biden's mix of insensitivity and bad politics is leaving in the area. This would create a very powerful block from the financial and energy point of view, perhaps even more powerful than the Western block.
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The article Will China succeed in replacing the US in relations with Arabia? comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/la-cina-riuscira-a-sostituirsi-agli-usa-nelle-relazioni-con-larabia/ on Sun, 30 Oct 2022 20:43:50 +0000.