Does autonomous driving send car manufacturers into a crash?
Closes Argo IA, autonomous driving startup supported by Ford and Volkswagen. The first, after all, ended the third quarter with a net loss of 827 million dollars, VW, which makes about 40% of sales and half of profits in China, is signing new agreements for software development right there
Nobody – or almost – trusts artificial intelligence at the wheel more. Not only the legislators, who prefer to proceed with lead on this point, but also the shareholders and, consequently, the large automotive manufacturers, which only 10-15 years ago had started what should have been the next big industry revolution.
DOES THE AUTONOMOUS DRIVER GO AWAY?
However, the world has changed in the meantime. First of all, the pandemic has turned balance sheets towards the red, then the war, the increase in raw materials, generalized inflation … The chip crisis itself is forcing brands to redesign the 'brains' of their cars in order to require the lowest possible number of semiconductors. Toyota, for example, has announced that for the time being its new models will say goodbye to smart keys in favor of traditional ones.
THE TROUBLES OF TESLA
And those who still believe in autonomous driving, like Tesla (only last week the CEO Elon Musk stated that he would soon release an updated version of the "Full Self-Driving" software that will allow customers to go "to work, to the home of friends, at the grocery store without touching the steering wheel ") now has to contend even with investigations by the US Department of Justice that could even have criminal profiles, at least according to Reuters . After all, the principle that AI learns for itself while on the road is not paying off. A report published by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration – the federal agency that reports to the Department of Transportation and is concerned with understanding how to increase road safety – claims that Tesla's autopilot was active in 273 accidents that occurred in 12 months. 70% of the total recorded by all vehicles that are experimenting with similar technologies. And given that in so many, too many cases, the dead have escaped us, even the most permissive legislators are now starting to put up stakes.
And then there is the issue, not secondary, of the energy transition: Brussels and Washington could impose a much more stringent road map on the car manufacturers than expected 10-15 years ago, when the transition to electricity still seemed far away and, above all , optional. For most brands, this means redesigning the supply chain , making new agreements with different suppliers, even grabbing what comes out of the subsoil by dealing directly with those who manage the mines. In all this we do not consider the billions spent on R&D for the development of new batteries, which last longer, recharge faster and have the same performance as internal combustion engines.
In short, we understand why the enthusiasm for autonomous driving is rapidly waning. Especially since the legislators continue to represent the bottleneck: if they do not allow cars to circulate, how is it possible to start the trials?
THE END OF ARGO AI
There are all these reasons behind the sudden closure of the half-European half-American startup Argo AI, founded in 2016 by Bryan Salesky and Peter Randers in which Ford had invested 1 billion dollars to take over the majority while the Germans of Volkswagen over 2.6 billion, of which 1 billion between the purchase of shares and capital injections while the remainder in the form of a transfer of the Autonomous Intelligent Driving GmbH of Munich. A joint venture that had raised the value of the startup to over 7 billion. “In coordination with our shareholders, the decision was made that Argo AI will not continue its mission as a company. Many of the employees will have the opportunity to continue working on automated driving technology with Ford or Volkswagen, while for others the employment relationship will unfortunately end ", is the meager press release to which the news of the closure of the innovative reality relies. . According to rumors, the more than 2 thousand employees of Argo, in addition to receiving a package of bonuses and prizes once the liquidation has been completed, will be able to choose whether to join the staff of the two houses or obtain dismissal compensation including health insurance coverage.
On the other hand, Ford ended the third quarter with a net loss of $ 827 million and, according to its CEO, Jim Farley , priorities would change: “We are optimistic about a future for the Adas L4, but profitable and fully autonomous large-scale vehicles are a long way off and we won't necessarily have to create this technology ourselves ", so much so that the Blue Oval seems to want to focus on closer technological milestones:" Customer development and enthusiasm for the advantages of the Adas L2 + and L3 they justify the aspirations and short-term commitment of the company in these two areas ”.
BETTER TO BET ON CHINA?
Volkswagen, on the other hand, irritated by the Western stalemate, has decided to bet in the oriental software houses by putting a few billions in the startup Horizon Robotics , as reported by the German economic newspapers Handelsblatt and Manager Magazin . After all, the Wolfsburg company makes about 40% of its sales and half of its profits in China. The decision to carry out research and development activities for vehicle technology in the country is not surprising, given that the Asian district is considered a more advanced market in digital innovation than Europe and the United States, also due to the huge investments. government aimed at factories that do R&D and universities that incubate startups. The company led by Oliver Blume also manages numerous joint ventures in the Asian country, holding a 75% stake in his company with JAC, 50% with SAIC and 40% with FAW.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/smartcity/la-guida-autonoma-manda-le-case-automobilistiche-a-sbattere/ on Mon, 31 Oct 2022 05:41:15 +0000.