The price of oil rises, while fears of a recession dissipate and fears of the Middle East increase
Crude oil prices were on course to post a weekly gain early today, despite strong headwinds that pushed benchmarks lower earlier in the week.
A new series of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza has once again increased the war premium on crude oil, pushing Brent and WTI higher as the prospect of a ceasefire receded once again. Here is the Brent graph as an example, with prices approaching 80 dollars again.
In the United States , better-than-expected unemployment data eased concerns about the world's largest oil consumer. Interestingly, it was a jobs report that pushed oil prices lower earlier in the week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' July jobs report showed the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, reigniting fears of a recession. The data is often contradictory and this does not help forecasts.
“The latest U.S. jobless claims data still points to a growing U.S. economy, reducing some of the concerns about oil demand,” Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, told Reuters.
“The stock market recovery is also easing some fears of a demand recession,” BOK Financial Securities senior vice president for trading Dennis Kissler told Bloomberg , also noting expectations of Iranian retaliation against Israel for the attack that killed Hamas' top commander in Tehran.
“The price of crude oil will spike if there is a large-scale Iranian retaliation and I think that's the most worrying thing for everyone,” Tim Snyder, chief economist at Matador Economics, told Reuters.
“Crude has continued its recovery from the recent slump as elevated geopolitical risks have come into focus,” ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes, who said he expected a 3% weekly rise in crude prices today, told Reuters. .
As it turns out, the latest weekly numbers have been enough to allay these fears, helping oil prices rise, with some support from Libya's production halt at the country's largest oil field. Sharara was closed earlier in the week due to protests.
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The article The price of oil rises, while fears of a recession dissipate and those over the Middle East increase comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/il-prezzo-dl-petrolio-sale-mentre-si-dissipano-i-timori-di-una-recessione-e-aumentano-quelli-sul-medio-oriente/ on Fri, 09 Aug 2024 15:04:22 +0000.