Ukraine and beyond, this is why Europe must accelerate on drones. Economist Report
Drones are reshaping the balance between man and technology at war, writes The Economist
Precision-guided weapons first appeared in their modern form on the battlefield in Vietnam just over 50 years ago.
Since then the military has sought to achieve precision and destructiveness, but the cost of these weapons has increased. American GPS-guided artillery shells cost $100,000 each. Because smart weapons are expensive, they are in short supply. For this reason, European countries ran out of them in Libya in 2011. Israel, more eager to conserve its supplies than avoid collateral damage, rained unmanned bombs on Gaza. What would happen, however, if precision and abundance could be combined?
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE BATTLEFIELDS IN UKRAINE
For the first time in the history of warfare, this question is being answered on the battlefields of Ukraine . Our coverage this week shows how first-person-view (FPV) drones are growing dramatically along the front lines. These are small, cheap, explosive-laden aircraft adapted from consumer models that are making soldiers' lives even more dangerous. These drones slip into tank turrets or trenches. They prowl and stalk their prey before killing it. They are taking a heavy toll on infantry and armor.
ZELENSKY CREATED THE STRENGTH OF UNMANNED SYSTEMS
The war is also making FPV drones and their maritime relatives ubiquitous. There were 3,000 FPV drone strikes in January. This week Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, created the Unmanned Systems Force, dedicated to drone warfare. In 2024, Ukraine is ready to build 1-2 million drones. Surprisingly, this will correspond to Ukraine's reduction in bullet consumption (which is declining because Republicans in Congress are shamefully denying Ukraine the supplies it needs).
BECAUSE DRONES TECHNOLOGY WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY
The drone is not a miracle weapon, which does not exist. It matters because it embodies the major trends of warfare: the shift toward small, cheap, disposable weapons, the growing use of consumer technology, and the drift toward autonomy in battle. Thanks to these trends, drone technology will quickly spread from armies to militias, terrorists and criminals. And it will improve not at the pace of the budget cycle of the military-industrial complex, but with the urgency of breaking consumer electronics.
Basic fpv drones are revolutionary simple. Descendants of racing quadcopters, built with off-the-shelf components, they can cost as little as a few hundred dollars. FPV drones tend to have short ranges, carry small payloads, and struggle in bad weather. For these reasons they will not replace artillery (yet). But they can still do a lot of damage. In one week last fall, Ukrainian drones helped destroy 75 Russian tanks and 101 big guns, among more. Russia has its own FPV drones, although they tend to hit trenches and soldiers. Drones help explain why both sides find it so difficult to mount offensives.
DEMOCRATIZATION OF PRECISION WEAPONS
The exponential growth in the number of Russian and Ukrainian drones indicates a second trend. They are inspired and adapted from widely available consumer technology. Not only in Ukraine, but also in Myanmar, where rebels have put government forces to flight in recent days, volunteers can use 3D printers to produce key components and assemble the bodies in small workshops. Unfortunately, criminal groups and terrorists are unlikely to be very far from militias.
This reflects a broad democratization of precision weapons. In Yemen, the Houthi rebel group has used low-cost Iranian guidance kits to build anti-ship missiles that pose a deadly threat to commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Iran itself has demonstrated how an assortment of drones and long-range attack ballistic missiles can have a geopolitical effect far exceeding their cost. Even if the kit needed to overcome the drone jam will significantly increase the cost of the weapons, as some predict, they will still be considered low-cost.
The reason is consumer electronics, which drives innovation at a rapid pace as capabilities accumulate in each product cycle. This poses problems of ethics and obsolescence. There will not always be time to subject new weapons to the tests that Western countries set for themselves in peacetime and which are required by the Geneva Conventions.
THE CONTRIBUTION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO DRONES
Innovation also leads to the latest trend, autonomy. Today, the use of FPV drones is limited by the availability of qualified pilots and the effects of jamming, which can disrupt the connection between a drone and its operator. To overcome these problems, Russia and Ukraine are experimenting with autonomous navigation and target recognition. Artificial intelligence has been available in consumer drones for years and is improving rapidly.
A certain degree of autonomy has existed for years in high-end munitions and for decades in cruise missiles. What's new is that microchips and low-cost software will allow intelligence to fit inside the millions of low-level munitions that are saturating the battlefield. The side that first masters autonomy at scale in Ukraine could enjoy a temporary but decisive advantage in firepower, a necessary condition for any breakthrough.
EUROPE IS BEHIND
Western countries have been slow to assimilate these lessons. Simple, cheap weapons will not replace large, high-end platforms, but will complement them. The Pentagon is belatedly embarking on Replicator, an initiative to build thousands of low-cost drones and munitions capable of taking on China's massive forces. Europe is even further behind. His ministers and generals are increasingly convinced that they could face another major European war by the end of the decade. If this is the case, investment in low-end drones must urgently grow. Furthermore, ubiquitous drones will require ubiquitous defenses, not only on battlefields but also in cities at peace.
KALASHNIKOV IN THE SKIES
Smart drones will also raise questions about how armies wage wars and whether humans can control the battlefield. As drones multiply, self-coordinated swarms will be possible. Humans will struggle to monitor and understand their interventions, let alone authorize them.
America and its allies must prepare for a world in which rapidly improving military capabilities spread faster and more widely. The skies above Ukraine are filled with expendable weapons that combine precision and firepower, but serve as a warning. Mass-produced hunter-killer aircraft are already reshaping the balance between man and technology in war.
(Excerpt from the foreign press review by Epr Comunicazione)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/smartcity/ucraina-e-non-solo-ecco-perche-leuropa-deve-accelerare-sui-droni/ on Sun, 18 Feb 2024 07:11:26 +0000.