All the turmoil in Germany over lockdowns, the economy and vaccines
Germany harnesses the three weeks around the Christmas holidays and the start of the year in the lockdown, while fears of a second recession grow according to analysts and there are the first setbacks in view of the distribution of vaccines. The in-depth study by Pierluigi Mennitti from Berlin
As expected for two days, Germany harnesses the three abundant weeks around the Christmas and New Year holidays in the lockdown. From Wednesday 16 December (the time to give schools and businesses a way to organize themselves) until 10 January almost everything closes. After so many peaks of crisis that lasted hours and hours, which lasted until late evening to battle over every little detail of every single measure, the Sunday one that decreed the failure of the soft strategy adopted at the end of October lasted 50 minutes.
Germany returns to the starting square, that of last March and of the first lockdown. The measures follow those of the time, and can be summarized in a few lines, as they are now known. All shops close, except supermarkets, weekly food markets, pharmacies and opticians. They close schools and kindergartens, whose activity will be reduced to a minimum for the assistance to the children of parents working in strategic sectors (hospitals, police, public transport). Hairdressers and body care businesses close. Ban on the sale and consumption of alcohol in public places. Private meetings limited to a maximum of 5 adults. Companies and offices are encouraged to take paid vacation or home office for their employees.
THE NEW RESTRICTIVE RULES IN GERMANY
A couple of specific rules are added for the festive period: Christmas dinner only with 4 additional people compared to the family unit (children under 14 are not included in the count), for New Year's Eve no gathering and sale of barrels and fireworks. In some Länder with a high number of infections there will also be a curfew. Religious ceremonies will be permitted with a limited number of faithful (who must book themselves) and observance of the rules of hygiene and safety. The evangelical church has already announced a large offer of online masses. Of course, all the activities already blocked in the weeks of the lockdown light remain closed, from restaurants to cultural events. The appeal of the government and regions: stay at home as much as possible, move only out of urgent necessity.
HOW THE CURVE OF COVID INFECTIONS GOES
The contagion curve had resumed an alarming exponential growth in the last week. In recent days, the new cases have touched the threshold of 30,000, the deaths that of 600. The second almost total lockdown within eight months also buries the myth of German specificity: with a number of contained cases and timely political choices, the Germany had brilliantly weathered the storm of the first wave. The second instead hit it in full and the light lockdown strategy, which in the first days seemed to be able to work, has instead failed. "Bergamo is closer than you think," Bavarian president Markus Söder said at a press conference, citing the tragedy of the Lombard city in the first wave. Germany risks transforming itself from a model country in the spring to a "main cause of concern in Europe". Hospitals are at their limit, with ICUs close to on-call and staff shortages to handle such a large number of patients. “The triage system is already in place in some areas of Germany,” Söder concluded.
MERKEL'S WARNINGS ABOUT COVID
Angela Merkel warned citizens: in the coming days the numbers of infections and deaths will continue to be high, because we will discount the infections that occurred in recent days, it will take some time before we see the effect of the new measures. At the beginning of January, on the 4th or 5th, the government-regions conference will meet again virtually to assess the situation. Almost everyone at the moment is convinced that the lockdown will not end on January 10 and will be extended in the following weeks.
WHAT HAPPENS IN SCHOOLS
Schools in particular are preparing to manage a long phase of distance teaching: a second test for a school system that has still proved too dependent on face-to-face teaching. The experience of last spring could be useful to accelerate the digitization process in schools that has been talked about for some time, but which in practice has often remained on paper. The same will apply to corporate activities and to the public and private service sector.
THE EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY
How much all this will affect the economy is still to be assessed. Economic research institutes had partially offset the decline in GDP following a surprising summer and autumn recovery after the spring crash. But the most optimistic estimates pointed to the illusion that the country could have avoided a second wave and consequent drastic measures. For Commerzbank analyst Jörg Krämer, Germany must expect a second recession. The closure of the shops is one of the main outlets for German industry products – Krämer told Reuters – estimating a drop of one percentage point in the last quarter of 2020 and still a negative sign for the first quarter of 2021. It will therefore be necessary to review the calculations. After hoping to keep economic activities and health protection together with soft and targeted measures, now politics has returned to the concept that only a total stop can in a short time bring the epidemiological situation under control and a certain security to the economic world. Meanwhile, Treasury Minister Olaf Scholz announced further financial aid for the businesses that will go into hibernation in the coming weeks, including for the business that had focused on Christmas sales to recover some of the losses incurred during the year.
THE INTOPPI ON THE PFIZER-BIONTECH VACCINE
But there is another piece of news that has come to disturb the government-regions crisis summit. Health Minister Jens Spahn reported it and it is reported in a bit of all German newspapers. There are hitches in the acquisition of the Biontech-Pfizer vaccine due to production problems, due on the one hand to the difficulty of finding material for the realization that would not have met the high standards required, and on the other hand to the delay compared to the expectations of the authorization process. .
GERMAN PRESSURES ON EMA
As for Germany, it is now expected that 3 to 4 million doses can be delivered by the end of January: with two vaccinations required, this means that only 1.5-2 million Germans will be able to be vaccinated by February. A circumstance that extends the timing of the planned plan and drives away the return to a situation of relative normality. And probably also those of easing restrictions.
After Britain's drug control authority, those of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Canada, Mexico and the United States have also given the green light to the Biontech-Pfizer vaccine. From Germany, the pressures towards the European EMA are getting stronger. Merkel and Spahn diplomatically reiterated "their hope that Europe will also grant rapid approval". Speaking with Spiegel, the Minister of Health was even more explicit: "In a national procedure we would certainly have been faster too, so it is important that the EMA grant the authorization as soon as possible". Some time ago Spahn prophesied: it would be difficult to explain to the Germans why a vaccine invented by a German company arrives earlier in other countries.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/tutti-i-subbugli-in-germania-su-lockdown-economia-e-vaccini/ on Sun, 13 Dec 2020 18:38:03 +0000.