Will Draghi yank Turkey, Egypt, China and Russia into Libya?
Draghi's visit to Libya: political objectives, geopolitical hopes and economic prospects. Facts, comments and analyzes by Sole 24 Ore, Corriere della Sera, Limes and Ispi
What will change for Italy in Libya after Draghi's visit to Tripoli?
Here are facts, comments and analysis.
Prime Minister Mario Draghi met the new Libyan Prime Minister of National Unity Abdel Hamid Mohamed Dbeibeh yesterday in Tripoli, talking about "a unique moment for Libya" and opening up to a renewed bilateral alliance based on the 2008 friendship agreement. Draghi he also congratulated the activities of the Libyan Coast Guard, expressing "satisfaction with what Libya is doing in the rescues".
ISPI'S POINT ON LIBYA
Draghi's trip took place in a delicate phase for Libya. The new government born under the aegis of the UN, was sworn in on March 15 in Benghazi. His inauguration marks – with the dissolution of the two executives present so far, that of Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj from Tripoli and that of Abdallah al-Thinni – the return to a single authority for the entire country, reads a report by the Ispi: “Authority that even General Khalifa Haftar, after seeing his dream of occupying Tripoli shattered, had to recognize. All accompanied by a ceasefire that has been in place since October. Is it the right time to talk about the prospects for peace? Difficult to say: to complicate matters, as always, is the presence on the ground of non-Libyan actors, whose ultimatum for the withdrawal – scheduled for January 23 – has in fact gone unnoticed. If the Turkish military, sent from Ankara in support of the besieged government of Fayez al-Serraj, today control the air base of al-Watiya, the naval one of Misurata and do not seem willing to leave Tripolitania, on the other side of the front, about 2000 Russian mercenaries of the Wagner company sent to support General Khalifa Haftar remain entrenched around Sirte. It is here that – as reported in January by CNN – the general and Wagner's militias erected a trench over 70 kilometers long. A wall in the desert that does not bode well for their real intentions to demobilize ”.
LIMES'S ANALYSIS ON LIBYA AND DRAGONS
"Today our former colony is divided between Russians and Turks and has become the clearing house for regional disputes, even before being a battleground for local militias hungry for power and resources – wrote Limes online – For all these reasons the Draghi's initiative in Tripoli alone cannot be considered decisive. Nonetheless, it makes manifest the will to return to deal directly with a decisive dossier for the security of our neighboring country, which has been neglected for too long. Trying to structure the return of the Italian presence in the “great Libyan game” thanks to the prospect of cooperation in the health, energy and above all infrastructural fields with Tripoli, levers with which Rome can reasonably hope to carve out a margin for action in North Africa. With the aim of supporting the newborn Libyan government of national unity and bringing Italy back to count along the southern shore of the Mediterranean ”.
THE COMMENT OF THE CORRIERE DELLA SERA ON THE VISIT OF DRAGONS IN LIBYA
Italy proposes itself as a point of reference for a strategic action of Europe based on four points, wrote the foreign expert of the Corriere della Sera , Franco Venturini: "The maintenance of the truce in arms, the active support to political process that opened with the unitary government, the withdrawal of foreign forces from Libya (only hoped for, at least for now) and a greater interest of the Biden administration, in collaboration with the Europeans, in Libya and the Mediterranean. Four points that want to lead the Italian side to a concrete partnership with the new Libya, a very demanding term that Draghi used not by chance ”.
IL PUNTO DEL SOLE 24 ORE ON ITALY AND NOT ONLY
For Il Sole 24 Ore , Draghi's visit, in addition to addressing strategic issues for Italy such as migration, seems to have first of all aimed at safeguarding the existing contracts and orders that belonged to Italian companies. Including the thorny question of debt collection, both historical and recent, Roberto Bongiorni of the newspaper directed by Fabio Tamburini wrote: “The reconstruction, the real one, is another story. And in this case, the Italian ambitions to be at the forefront risk being downsized. Italy will try to focus on its strengths: on the energy sector, especially methane (Eni with its gas already illuminates several cities in Tripolitania including Tripoli), on the electricity grid, on green energy projects and on the health sector. . But it cannot be fooled that it is taking the lion's share of the reconstruction. Because Turkish companies will probably be the ones to hoard many contracts in Tripolitania, not only in the residential sector, where they have almost no competition, but also in other strategic sectors. And the Egyptian ones in Cyrenaica. It is no coincidence that the announcement of the largest cement factory, which will be built in Misrata with an investment of 50 million dollars, and will employ a thousand workers at full capacity, came from a Turkish company ”.
THE SIGHTS OF TURKEY, EGYPT AND CHINA
In the front row in the economic game linked to the reconstruction of Libya – according to the Sun – there will also be the Egypt of General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi: "On March 13, the Libyan embassy in Cairo announced that it had reached an agreement with the authorities to facilitate the entry of Egyptian workers to Libya. Libya will need $ 450 billion for its reconstruction over a five-year period. And of a foreign workforce of three million people, said Abdelmajid Kosher, president of the Libyan Union of Contractors, perhaps with a little tread on the hand. Adding that Egyptian companies will take the lion's share (Egyptian sources speak of two million workers). The Chinese, with their unsustainable offers for European companies, and with state-owned banks loaded with cash to back them, will certainly not stand by. In these days, a high-level Chinese economic and commercial delegation is addressing the issue of reconstruction with the Libyan government, with public and private entities. Beating them in infrastructures will not be easy ”.
THE COMMENT OF MASSOLO (ISPI) CALLS FOR A ROLE FOR EU AND US
"A few days after the formation of the Dbeibah government, the visit to Libya by Prime Minister Draghi allows Italy to reaffirm its centrality in the stabilization of a country that is fundamental for national interest and security on a geopolitical, security and energy level, migratory and economic – wrote the ambassador Giampiero Massolo, president of ISPI – Today more than ever it is essential to support the political process underway in the country by consolidating the ceasefire and strengthening the stability of the institutional framework. At the same time, it is necessary to give a concrete impulse to the economic revival by aiming with investments and reconstruction to concretely improve the living conditions of the local population. However, these objectives presuppose a new role, for Italy but also for the European Union, which rebalances, together with the main stakeholders, the consolidated influence on the ground of Russia and Turkey. The renewed interest in the Libyan dossier expressed by the Biden administration represents a reason for justified optimism in this respect and should be encouraged ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/draghi-strattonera-turchia-egitto-cina-e-russia-in-libia/ on Wed, 07 Apr 2021 07:26:54 +0000.