Because France is on the verge of an institutional crisis
“An institutional crisis has opened in France that will put the system to the test. I believe it is difficult for the socialist party to abandon Melenchon and the more radical wing of the left to form a government with Macron." Conversation with Alberto Toscano, former Paris correspondent for several Italian newspapers, now analyst for International Affairs
An election with clear losers and winners, but with a scenario that opens up under the banner of ungovernability. This is the immediate analysis of the French vote by Alberto Toscano, former Paris correspondent for several Italian newspapers, now analyst for International Affairs and president of the European Press Association in France.
Toscano, in this conversation with Start Magazine, also explains why the Left Front is unlikely to disintegrate with the socialists' turn towards the centrist bloc of the revived Macronists.
Who won and who lost yesterday?
The question is only apparently simple. In my opinion, Macron, who dissolved the National Assembly and created this uproar, lost first and foremost. Furthermore, the coalition that supported him had 250 seats and now finds itself with only 150.
More than someone, however, has underlined in recent hours that the president isn't coming out so badly.
This is also true, because despite the setback in parliamentary terms, his group remains the arbiter of future balances. But, I repeat, the loss of seats and therefore the reduction of Macron's previous image as the undisputed ruler of French politics is indisputable.
Let's talk about the second loser, namely the Rassemblement National.
In fact, the theme of the defeat of the RN dominates all the newspapers today. However, he lost compared to the polls that showed him as victorious and compared to a very widespread expectation of his success. However, the party had won 89 seats in the 2022 elections and now wins 143. An increase of more than 50 seats.
An advance, but not a decisive one.
Exactly. This time too something happened between the French that blocked the way for the RN at the last minute. However, in addition to the 50 additional seats, I would like to point out that Le Pen's will be the largest parliamentary group in the next National Assembly. A result that is not just symbolic or arithmetic.
Can we define the victory of the left as a victory?
That of the Left Front, which came together in just a few days, is not just a victory, but a great victory. And within the success of the entire Front, the most sensational one is that of the socialists, who more than doubled their seats compared to two years ago. However, we need to see if this team will hold now.
Will he succeed?
The much-discussed scenario of a government that keeps the center and center-left together while leaving out the extremes presupposes a breakup of the Front. And I believe it is difficult that, after the success it has achieved, the socialist party will abandon Melenchon and the more radical wing of the left to form a government with Macron. It would be considered treason.
These results make the Fifth Republic unrecognizable, if you'll excuse the joke.
In fact, we essentially have three large blocks that confront each other without being decisive in a situation of substantial ungovernability. The scenario is that of a Fourth Republic, with governments that are created, fall and recreated again. An institutional crisis has therefore opened which will put the system to the test.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-la-francia-e-sullorlo-di-una-crisi-istituzionale/ on Mon, 08 Jul 2024 10:16:40 +0000.