Because Odessa will be at the center of the European defense strategy
Odessa has never mattered much to the Ukrainian government. Now, however, the city has become the fulcrum of the country's military projection on the Black Sea. Analysis by Ugo Poletti
Just two days after his appointment, on Monday 8 July, the new British Secretary of State for Defense John Healey made his first foreign mission to Odessa. With this gesture the new British government publicly reaffirmed its commitment to military support for Ukraine . In the Ukrainian maritime capital he was welcomed by the Ukrainian head of state Volodymyr Zelensky, his defense minister Rustem Umerov, and vice admiral Oleksij Neizhpapa, commander of the Ukrainian naval forces, gathered to celebrate Ukrainian Navy Day. The new Dutch Minister of Defense and Foreign Affairs Caspar Veldkamp was also visiting.
ALL VISITS TO ODESSA (THE ITALIAN GOVERNMENT IS MISSING)
Both European defense ministers confirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression and in response Zelensky said: “We will continue to strengthen the Ukrainian fleet together with Great Britain and the Netherlands, and there are encouraging new details from our cooperation.” Since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, the UK has provided over £7.6 billion in military support to Ukraine. Additionally, more than 42,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained in the UK as part of Operation Interflex.
Interestingly, this latest visit adds to the long list of European defense ministers who have visited Odessa, notably: Denmark, Germany (twice), Holland, Spain and Sweden. And countries that did not send a defense minister, such as France and Norway, sent their foreign minister. The only exception is Italy. No member of the Italian government has yet gone on a mission to the Black Sea port. Odessa has therefore become the epicenter of meetings of government officials. In 2023, it received more than 100 foreign delegations.
Why this great interest of European governments in Odessa? If visits to the capital Kiev make sense from a political point of view, going to Odessa is optional. It is a sign that today the Black Sea port has taken on an importance that it did not have before. First of all, Odessa is the fulcrum of the Ukrainian military projection on the Black Sea, a novelty unimaginable before 2022. At the time of the Russian invasion no one hypothesized a loss of the hegemony of the Russian fleet, which could easily block Ukrainian ports and threaten the entire commercial maritime traffic.
Today, the Russian Black Sea fleet has seen 26 ships and one submarine destroyed (source: British Intelligence), with a reduction of about half of its fighting capacity. The sinking of the flagship “Moskva”, which represented the pride of Russian naval technology, was a humiliation that Russia had not received since the Battle of Tsushima (Sea of Japan, 1905). After the first months of 2022, in which the naval blockade was strangling Ukrainian exports, Russian ships even had to abandon the Sevastopol base, which is too vulnerable to attacks from missiles and maritime drones, to take shelter in Russian and Georgian ports , in the eastern part of the Black Sea. Crimea, which was the object of dispute between Russia and Ukraine due to its strategic position in the center of the Black Sea, has today become unusable for the Russian fleet. And Ukraine found itself in military control of half the Black Sea, despite not having a fleet, thus being able to reopen its commercial trade without fearing the Russian threat anymore.
A CHANGE OF MILITARY AND GEOPOLITICAL PARADIGM
We are facing a military, but also geopolitical, paradigm shift. All conventional wars, except guerrilla warfare or internal wars (Afghanistan, Syria, Burma), lead to leaps in technological innovation and military tactics. In particular, the war on the Black Sea has reduced the role of the classic fleet, condemning some categories of ship, due to new technologies (maritime drones and missiles) and their innovative use. All countries with an advanced shipbuilding industry, such as the USA, China, France, Germany and Italy, are reviewing their shipbuilding projects to adapt to the new needs highlighted by the Ukrainian experience. This already explains the interest of the defense ministries of Western countries in Odessa, the base from which Ukraine launches its operations on the Black Sea.
But the Ukrainian army's use of weapons offered by the West, such as anti-aircraft defenses, also represents an important experience to study with immediate implications for the military industry. It is clear that the effectiveness of some weapon systems tested on that large range that (unfortunately) represents Ukraine is very important for the investment choices that European countries must make to re-equip their armies and update military doctrine .
THE SAFETY OF MARITIME TRAFFIC
Furthermore, this war highlighted the importance of maritime traffic safety, both on the Black Sea and in the Strait of Suez. This calls into question the participation of European fleets in the security policy of the Mediterranean and its connections with the Black Sea and the Indian Ocean, also following the gradual disengagement of the American fleet in the Mare Nostrum. In practice, Europe can no longer find itself in the situation of being subject to blackmail on food imports from Ukraine (consisting of: wheat, corn, sunflower seeds, soya and barley). Not only does the production of Italian pasta or corn-based feed for Italian livestock farms depend on Ukrainian wheat, but also the nutrition of 400 million people. There are countries in Africa and the Middle East that without Ukrainian agricultural production would find themselves with millions of hungry people, ready to migrate to Europe in order to survive. As a result, the military security of the Black Sea has become a problem for Europe, which becomes a priority in the European defense strategy. Here is another explanation of the constant visits of defense ministers to Odessa.
ODESSA IS UNCATCHABLE FOR RUSSIA
If the Kremlin could have foreseen this downgrading of its maritime power, which was intimidating just two years ago, perhaps it would not have launched its attack on Ukraine. In fact, the failure to conquer Odessa represented a serious blow to its hegemony on the Black Sea. Today we know that the Russian invasion plan envisaged the easy conquest of Kiev in 3 days, to decapitate the Ukrainian government. This should have made the Black Sea pearl fall into Russian hands without having to fight, also thanks to its supposedly pro-Russian population.
Today Odessa is impregnable, despite constant threats from the Kremlin. From the sea it can no longer be attacked for the reasons already explained. And from the ground the Russian army should recross the Dniepr river and reconquer Kherson and Mykolaiv, but it is clear that it is not in a position to do so. Finally, the few paratroop operations carried out by the Russians all failed in a bloodbath. This is why many inhabitants of Odessa, who fled the first year, have returned, and refugees from the most attacked Ukrainian regions stop in the city.
This new international role for Odessa requires the Ukrainian Government to develop a maritime strategy. The mentality of the leadership in Kiev is continental. The Ukrainian cities that have always influenced Ukrainian politics the most are: Dnipro (Dnepropetrovsk), Lviv, Kharkiv and, once, Donetsk. None of these have the sea. Odessa has never counted for much in Kiev, due to the lack of local politicians to represent its demands in the capital. However, today the Ukrainian leadership can no longer avoid thinking about maritime policy. This means a more influential presence in international fora, such as the London-based United Nations International Maritime Organization (IMO), where Ukraine is not among the 40 countries elected to the executive committee. Furthermore, scientific and academic collaborations between the Naval Academy and Maritime University of Odessa and naval training institutes of other countries need to be promoted.
But this change in the balance of power on the sea opens up new interesting games for those states that want to play a role of influence on the sea. For example, China and Europe (including Italy).
China failed to complete the Silk Roads project. For example, the Greek port of Piraeus, where China had invested heavily, was the first stop on a trade corridor through the Balkans, which was not built. Potential Chinese investment in Trieste was a viable option, but was blocked following the change of government in Italy. Today, Odessa represents an interesting alternative for Chinese trade routes, because from the Black Sea port there are rail connections to the ports of Gdańsk (Poland) and Klaipeda (Lithuania) on the Baltic Sea. It is no coincidence that the Chinese Consulate in Odessa, which looks like a fort, is the size of an embassy.
THE IMPORTANCE OF THE BLACK SEA FOR ITALY
Finally let's talk about Italy. The importance of the Black Sea has reinvigorated the Three Seas Initiative. It is a forum of 12 states of the European Union, of which 11 are members of NATO, located along the north-south axis between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas. The initiative aims to develop and define a strategy of cohesion, integration and infrastructural connections between the states of Eastern and Central Europe. Italy is not among the member countries of this project. The Adriatic Sea is represented by Croatia, which boasts the ports of: Dubrovnik (Ragusa), Split, Šibenik and Rijeka (Gabriele d'Annunzio will be turning in his grave). Italy's sensational absence arises from an (unfortunate) diplomatic choice made many years ago, but today a change in foreign policy would be useful to allow Italy to participate in this match too.
“Much confusion under the sky, many opportunities,” said the Great Helmsman Mao Tse-Tung.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/ruolo-odessa-ucraina/ on Sat, 13 Jul 2024 06:03:58 +0000.