Because Russia is currently unable to bend Ukraine. General Jean is speaking
How is Russia's war on Ukraine progressing? The interview of the Agi agency with General Carlo Jean, expert in military strategy and president of the Study Center of Economic Geopolitics.
The war in Ukraine is translating into a defeat on the ground for the Russian troops: General Carlo Jean, an expert in military strategy and president of the Center for Economic Geopolitics, is convinced of this.
According to General Jean, the military setback for Vladimir Putin is comparable to that of Mussolini in Greece in the Second World War: "Putin must swallow the bitter pill and be persuaded to withdraw", says the general, "to then contribute financially to the reconstruction of that which he destroyed in Ukraine. I'll say more: if there was no Ukrainian nation, he managed to create it. And if NATO was in ruins, Putin has reconstituted it: they should give him a medal of honor… ”.
Why would the Russian armed forces be heading for defeat?
“The Russians lack infantry because they have restructured themselves for war against armored and mechanized armies such as those of NATO. Therefore the battalion tactical groups employed by the Russians have fewer than 200 infantry per thousand men. And in an unconventional war, the defenders who know the terrain well and hide in the woods and rubble end up winning, inflicting considerable losses ”.
But the Russian bombing is inflicting heavy damage on Ukraine.
“The bombardment of cities is light, not so much because the Russians do not want to destroy the buildings, but because they are not equipped: they have few bombers. They fire with artillery and launch missiles, which mostly terrorize the population. It is not so much a deliberate tactic as dictated by desperation ”.
Where are the Russian bombers?
“Almost all of them were involved in the transport of nuclear weapons. And out of 60-70 only about ten are modern. The others date back to the 1970s. Nothing comparable to the American B-52s ".
What is the reason for the shortage?
“Russia, not having enough money, has invested it above all in strategic weapons, such as nuclear submarines and high-speed missiles. Furthermore, the military doctrine of the Russian forces provides for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the event of an escalation, but Russia in the case of Ukraine cannot afford to raze a city: knocking down the St. Sophia Cathedral in Kiev would be like if the French destroyed St. Peter's. Therefore they limit themselves to artillery, even if it causes painful casualties among civilians as happened in Mariupol. But to conquer cities, I repeat, the Russians do not have a suitable army. They do not have enough infantry and this explains why they intend to turn to Syrian volunteers ”.
What is the cause of this deficiency?
“The organization of an army depends a lot on the demographics of a people. When a woman has ten children, as in World War I, two could have been left behind, but if she has one or two, a loss becomes far more serious in all respects. The Russian army wanted by the Chief of Staff Gerasimov and the Minister of Defense Shogu, since 2015 has given absolute prevalence to firepower over infantry. A technical-military revolution was even theorized which was to lead to a 'soldierless' army.
Are factors related to the Ukrainian territory also weighing on the conflict?
"Of course. Russian tanks moved worse due to the softer ground due to the change in temperature, and they also turned out to be less resilient than previously thought. Ukrainian infantry attack them on the flanks causing heavy casualties. And then, with the extension of the war in depth, the problem of protecting the supply routes is accentuated. A truck convoy has little chance of reaching Kiev from the Belarusian border if it has to cross areas full of guerrillas equipped with state-of-the-art anti-tank weapons ”.
Can despair lead to the use of nuclear weapons?
“There are other systems first, for example the thermobaric bombs with the power of 44 tons of TNT. Then the chemical and biological weapons. However, in this case the worldwide reaction would be enormous, probably also that of the Russian people. And I also know Russian senior officials well: they are cultured and intelligent, and if Putin gave them the order to use nuclear weapons they would probably refuse to obey. Especially if they were to use them on a city. I am convinced of it. In Russia there is a triple key: Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov have it ”.
Could the Chinese supply the Russians with weapons?
“The only things they could give are the drones that the Russians are lacking, while the Chinese ones are good, and the long-lasting combat rations. But they will think twice. The commercial consequences would be disproportionate and China is too vulnerable on maritime connections: a merchant ship would no longer pass east or west if the Western powers decided on a blockade ”.
(Extract from an interview published on the Agi website; here the full version )
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/russia-ucraina-generale-jean/ on Sat, 19 Mar 2022 10:42:05 +0000.