Corriere della Sera, the hole in the public accounts and the hole in the water…

Try to imagine the sense of bewilderment that overwhelmed the readers of Corriere della Sera . They were left with the "holes in state revenues" of August 11 which had disturbed a few days of well-deserved relaxation under an umbrella or in a mountain hut. But on 17 August a glimpse of serenity made its way through the clouds, when they read that "two days ago the news that tax and social security revenues for the first half of 2023 increased by 3.6% (13.4 billion more) compared to the same period of 2022. "This trend is in line with what has already been indicated in the Def", commented the Ministry of Economy led by Giancarlo Giorgetti. For the moment, therefore, there would be no gaps in income, but it remains to be seen how the second half will go…”.

But how? The reader may be wondering who, in the meantime, had entertained his friends and family at the table with learned evening disquisitions on the "hole in the revenue", even ruining the serenity of a summer dinner for the unfortunate. What happened in just 7 days with mid-August as well?

Simply nothing. Because the data (and related misleading conclusions) on which the August 11 article was based had not been analyzed properly. So the problem did not exist from the beginning. These are things that happen when data is tortured in order to make it confess a pre-established thesis. In this case, the Italians reluctant to pay taxes and prone to evasion, encouraged by the Government. None of that. Because that title was based on the (wrong) hypothesis of an expected increase in tax revenues of 10%, inflated by inflation . Which is precisely the only cause that the General Accounting Office (Rgs) does not report when listing the causes of the increase. In fact, the Mef's Technical Note explains that first of all the increase in revenue is a robust +3.3% (not the Corriere's +1.9% based on uneven data). Irpef and Ires increase by 6/7% and the drop in the tax on capital income and capital gains weighs heavily. Perhaps the Corriere has forgotten that, with the rise in interest rates, managed savings have taken a bath and paid less tax. The drop in VAT is also due to the lower VAT on imports, while that on internal trade marks a good +5.4%. Also in this case, it would have been enough to remember that when raw materials and energy are imported at insane prices, as in 2022, VAT revenues increase, and in 2023 the decrease is affected by lower import prices and therefore by the lower VAT tax base . No "return of evasion", as hypothesized by Corriere.

The bulletin published on August 16 – which also takes account of the trend in contribution revenues – is not only a confirmation of the data published on the 7th which therefore in itself did not support the Corriere 's conclusions. The important clarification is provided that the comparison of the first half of 2023 with the first half of 2022 is uneven, because in 2023 the balance and first Irpef, Ires and Irap advance of the ISA subjects will be paid in July, while in 2022 they were paid in June. Therefore, even the already robust increase in Irpef and Ires of around 6/7% is penalized. Other than a drop in revenue which, on the other hand, is increasing despite the comparison that penalizes 2023. The bulletin on Wednesday 16th only added the data on contribution revenue which showed a +4.5%.

So the calm has returned under the umbrella, but by now the holidays have been ruined and Monday it's back to work.