Here are the 3 signs of the administration in France for Macron

Here are the 3 signs of the administration in France for Macron

Macron's real problem is being able to rule when the social, employment and economic effects of the post-covid will be fully felt from the fall. Enrico Martial's point after the administrative vote in France

Bordeaux, Lyon, Strasbourg, Poitiers, Annecy, Besançon will have a green mayor, like several other French municipalities, among the 4820 who voted (15%, but 39% of the electoral body) for the second round, after the suspension due to Covid who had followed the first round on 15 March. The Greens also contributed in several victories to the left and the Socialist party, where this still plays a role, as in Rouen or Rennes, but also in Paris, where Anne Hidalgo was re-elected.

As in other European countries, municipal elections in France have a territorial mark, with specific trends and historical roots of the nineteenth and nineteenth centuries, updated by social, economic and cultural transformations: the Lepenist right, for example in parts of the Mediterranean coast, in some industrial areas in crisis, in some rural areas, the socialist left that is saved in northern municipalities (the same Paris, or Lille, where Martine Aubry has preserved the city for about 250 votes even against the greens), Les Républicains, heirs of Gaullism in formats of Chirac or Sarkozy, on production axes and in medium and large cities, to represent social and generational groups.

Yesterday's vote shows more signs than trends. There was also a very strong abstention: in the first round, thanks to Covid, 44.64% of the voters participated (66.54% in 2014), in the second round the rate is to be placed between 40 and 41% (62.13% in 2014, and it was already considered low).

The first sign is undoubtedly in the failure of the attempt to stem the greens, set up with case-by-case alliances between the movement of Macron LREM and Les Républicains. In Lyon it was striking, with the defeat of the operation of the outgoing historic mayor, Gérard Collomb, who had made an agreement to elect his own heir leaving the metropolitan city in Les Républicains. Supporter of the origins of Macron, his Minister of the Interior, he had coldly moved away in October 2018, and yesterday he really lost: the greens have 50 of the 73 seats in common and 80 of the 150 seats in the metropolitan city. Among other things, in Lyon, Marseille and Paris the election of the mayor, the formal and final one, takes place on the vote of the respective local assemblies and in Marseille the games are not entirely closed between greens and socialists. Similar alliances against the greens have yielded precisely in Strasbourg, Clermont-Ferrand, Tours, and in Bordeaux itself, a city of conservative tradition in which generational and economic developments and fractures are noted.

The second sign can be read in the relative weakening of the most destabilizing or antisystem forces: the Marine Le Pen Rassemblement national conquered Perpignan, but it did not go well overall. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Insoumise is almost absent. Abstention is a sign of a withdrawal, perhaps of partial immersion in a more radical rebellion (60 5G antennas have been destroyed since the beginning of the health crisis), but green victory is a factor in stabilizing the opposition, governing measures concrete, more institutional as lively as they are.

The third sign is in the small paradox of a Macron who seems defeated but finds himself in a less difficult context: fewer enemies at home (Collomb in Lyon, who had abandoned him as minister) and more friends among the oppositions on a possible one, for as animated, green platform. Prime Minister Edouard Philippe won in Le Havre and would have a way out in the event of a government reshuffle. The green theme can foster collaboration, given that the Macronist majority itself has promoted the Climate Convention, whose 150 citizens chosen by drawing lots have produced a program that is now circulating in public debate. The green theme is in the European Union's priorities for recovery, and is shared by other political forces, such as the socialists in Paris. With the rest of the political forces there are other topics, such as economic development, innovation, security.

The scenario to look after, after the outcome of the French municipal elections, is the government reshuffle and the political and economic program scheduled for mid-July. Some elements have already been announced in Macron's televised speech of 14 June: strong public presence, environmental transformation, relocation of production sectors in France and Europe (a partial regional de-localization), greater innovation and productivity, in conditions of social support and security, on which the position of the current Interior Minister, Christophe Castaner, is in doubt, for example.

The approach should be less top-down, as during the health crisis compared to the first phase of the presidential term, with more initiative and by Regions and precisely by Municipalities, politically so varied. The participatory method by which the jaunes vest crisis was tackled was confirmed by the Citizens' Climate Convention and various announcements on republican unity.

The real problem of the President, in fact, is being able to govern in acceptable conditions with respect to the critical trigger that can occur from autumn, with the social, employment and economic effects of the post- covid or even a second wave.

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL on Mon, 29 Jun 2020 08:10:03 +0000.