How is trade between Russia and China going?
In the period January-April 2022, trade between Russia and China grew by 25.9 percent. The March data, while significant, however, showed a slowdown compared to February, before the invasion began. All the details
Russian news agency TASS reported today that in the first quarter of 2022 (January-April) trade between Russia and China grew by 25.9 percent year-on-year to reach $ 51 billion.
THE NUMBERS COMPARED
In the period considered, Chinese exports to Russia increased by 11.3 percent to 20.2 billion. Russian exports of goods and services to China, on the other hand, gained 37.8 percent, for 30.8 billion.
WHAT CHINA AND RUSSIA EXPORT
About 70 percent of the value of Chinese imports of Russian products is represented by hydrocarbons: oil, natural gas and coal. Other significant Russian exports were copper, timber and fish. On the other hand, Chinese exports are more varied, consisting of smartphones, industrial machinery, toys, footwear, motors, air conditioners and computers.
– Read also: Why Russia will not be able to replace Europe with China on gas
WHERE OIL GOES
China's independent refineries are buying barrels of Russian oil at discounted prices, but in secret, to avoid being hit by US sanctions. State-owned trading firms, on the other hand, mostly refused to sign new supply contracts with Russia.
Last April, China imported nearly 7 percent more crude oil than a year ago, for a total of 10.5 million barrels a day, although the drop in fuel demand due to lockdowns caused a contraction in refinery activities.
It won't be that easy for Moscow to sell its oil to Asia, however. Nor will it be that profitable: it will have to offer it at a lower price than that set for the European market to balance the risks of the sale, given that Western financial institutions are refusing to insure the ships carrying Russian energy loads.
THE NUMBERS OF TRADE IN MARCH
In March, trade between China and Russia grew by about 12 percent year-on-year, marking a slowdown compared to February (the invasion of Ukraine began on February 24), when trade had increased by 25.7 percent. one hundred. In any case, for Beijing, it was a value above the average for trade with other countries (7.7 per cent).
By 2021, Sino-Russian trade reached a record $ 146.9 billion, an annual increase of 35.8 percent.
China, linked to Russia by an "unlimited" strategic partnership, has neither condemned its invasion nor imposed sanctions, as has been done by the major world economies (the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan, for example). Analysts think that China will be able to support Russia in this phase of international semi-isolation by increasing imports, even if Beijing does not seem willing to go too far, to avoid running into violations of Western sanctions.
– Read also: Will China be able to guarantee enough alumina for Russia?
FORECASTS OF RUSSIA
In late April, the Russian government said it expected trade with China to grow to $ 200 billion in 2024.
Georgiy Zinoviev, head of the Asian department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told the Russian agency Interfax that "Chinese companies remain interested in expanding their presence in Russia" and that, in this regard, "further opportunities are opening up given the departure of some Western companies ".
However, Zinoviev acknowledged the existence of risks for Beijing should it help Moscow circumvent sanctions: "it is clear that in the current situation many Chinese economic operators must be cautious, given the likelihood of secondary sanctions".
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/cina-russia-commercio-gennaio-aprile-2022/ on Mon, 09 May 2022 12:09:40 +0000.