Here’s how Unicredit will move on Bpm
Unicredit bets on Banco Bpm. Facts, numbers, rumors and scenarios
What will happen between Unicredit and Banco Bpm?
At Piazza Affari, the rumor according to which Unicredit (-1.7%) has Banco Bpm in its sights held its ground on Friday 11 February.
The institute led by Andrea Orcel limited itself to commenting that it continues to evaluate all the strategic choices that it has called for now and not extraordinary board.
The market, however, seems to believe in the operation to the point that Banco Bpm's shares did not price all morning, rising by 10%.
Moreover, the rumors on the possible move by Unicredit also involve Anima (+ 4.8%), a company in which Banco Bpm holds a stake of around 20%.
But how did the rumors on the stock exchange about Unicredit and Banco Bpm come about? Here are all the details.
WHAT THE MESSENGER WRITTEN ON UNICREDIT-BPM
According to the newspaper Il Messaggero , behind the jump of 8% of Bpm on the stock market, last Wednesday, there are not only the good numbers of the financial statements but also the fact that, after the acquisition of Mps, "the Orcel institute is back in maneuver ”on Piazza Meda, the institute headed by Giuseppe Castagna. To the point that "at the top levels of finance" but also "in government circles" there are those who "do not rule out that Unicredit may come forward with a proposal at the turn of the weekend" and "there are even those who speak of takeover bid" .
THE UNICREDIT NOTE ON BANCO BPM AND NOT ONLY
And what did Unicredit say about the rumors? "As part of its business and in line with the 2022-2024 Strategic Plan, UniCredit continues to evaluate all the strategic options available and will not fail to keep the market informed of any concrete development". Thus a spokesman for the institute in Piazza Gae Aulenti: "We also specify – added by UniCredit – that no extraordinary meeting of the board of directors has been called".
THE SCENARIOS ON UNICREDIT-BPM
Will Banco Bpm really be Unicredit's target? There is still no answer, according to Mf / Milano Finanza: “However, the operation would have solid rationales as it would strengthen the presence of Unicredit in a nerve center such as Lombardy. Not only. Some major Banco shareholders would not mind the move, starting with the foundations (with which the president Massimo Tononi has excellent relations) and investment funds such as the one led by Davide Leone. It is true, however, that, thanks to the cleaning and relaunch work done so far by the CEO, Giuseppe Castagna, the Banco (assisted by Lazard and Citi on the side of extraordinary operations) could prove to be a rather expensive prey for Unicredit. Accounts in hand, some analysts are betting on a premium of over 27% offered by Intesa Sanpaolo for Ubi and between 40 and 50% ".
THE JUDGMENT OF THE ANALYSTS
The fact is that JP Morgan recalls that Unicredit has "4-6 billion of excess capital in the business plan and has never excluded M&A". And today Equita Sim writes that the merger hypothesis “would have a strong industrial rationale as it would significantly strengthen the competitive positioning of the group in Italy in absolute terms”. The Milanese bank would go from a market share of 11% to 18%, especially in the North (here the share would double from 10% to 20%), reducing the differential compared to Intesa Sanpaolo. According to the calculations of the Milanese SIM, the group that would be created would have a Cet 1 of around 13% and a capital buffer compared to the minimum levels required by the ECB (the Srep) of around 400 basis points (it is 4%).
THE MEDIOBANCA REPORT ON UNICREDIT-BANCO BPM
The analysts of Piazzetta Cuccia recall that the shares of the Milanese bank have recovered 40% from the failure of negotiations to take over a perimeter of Mps, while in the same period Banco Bpm has grown by 20%, since "the standalone strategy of Unicredit , founded on capital solidity and shareholder remuneration via buyback and coupon, was well received by the market ”, write the analysts of Mediobanca Securities.
Analysts believe that the stock may be subject to a re-rating thanks to the accounts and recall that the CEO Orcel has always been clear in his communication: the 16 billion euro return on capital belongs to the bank's strategy and a possible transaction of M&A must be compatible with this benchmark. That is: first to remunerate the shareholders, then to carry out extraordinary operations. Mediobanca expects the purchase plan worth 3.75 billion euros to be launched.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/unicredit-castagna-banco-bpm/ on Fri, 11 Feb 2022 14:56:29 +0000.