I’ll tell you about the great chaos surrounding the race for the White House
What happens in the United States between Biden and Trump. Guiglia's notebook
No Ukraine in NATO and cession of the territories (all or in part?), occupied by Russia with the war of aggression and recognized to it with a peace negotiation.
The first scenario is already circulating, immediately denied by Moscow and excluded by Kiev, of what Donald Trump would have in his drawer or perhaps just in his soul to deal with Vladimir Putin, if he won the presidential elections in America on November 5th.
The indiscretion, reliable or not, however reveals two things: that the return of the Republican candidate to the White House is now considered plausible. And it could be precisely the US disengagement from the Euro-Atlantic strategy in total support of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and his attacked people, that represents a turning point compared to the president, Joe Biden.
A president who finds himself in growing difficulty even in his democratic party, after the disastrous duel on TV with the mocking antagonist.
The Americans continue to wonder about that face-to-face meeting, because it revealed a Biden in trouble, called upon at almost 82 years of age to remain at the helm of the main power in the world for another four years.
But Europeans are also wondering about NATO, which Trump has repeatedly threatened that he wants to abandon to its fate, accusing the allies of not paying the agreed 2% of GDP to defend it. Two thirds of the 31 countries, including Italy, are called to do so.
In reality, beyond the excess of confidence and words (Trump has already said that he would be able to resolve the conflict "in 24 hours"), Washington's possible break away from the West's pro-Ukraine policy would be a move for political reasons: since we cannot or do not want to have both against us, we must choose the lesser evil for the USA between China and Russia. And the least worst would be to reach an agreement with Putin, at least from the isolationist perspective of the pre-eminent "American interest" claimed by Trump. Because Biden, on the contrary, responds that telling Putin, whom he defines as "a war criminal", that he can "do whatever he wants", means heading towards the third world war.
A clear contrast, however not univocal. Even among the Republicans there are those who consider Russia's aggression the worst threat, almost a dress rehearsal – if not counteracted – of what could happen to Taiwan at the hands of Beijing. Because it is no longer the time for hegemonic distinctions in an increasingly interdependent world, where every move on the geopolitical chessboard ends up having effects far beyond the opponent in front of us.
Never like this time will the next four months of the Trump versus Biden election campaign (or of an increasingly invoked replacement in the running, starting with Vice President Kamala Harris whose ideas, however, are much more to the left than the moderate Biden), will have an impact on everyone's choices .
The White House is no longer exclusive to Washington.
(Published in L'Arena di Verona, Il Giornale di Vicenza, Bresciaoggi and Gazzetta di Mantova)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/casa-bianca/ on Tue, 09 Jul 2024 05:05:14 +0000.