Not just Mbda. What are the parallel convergences between Tempest and FCAS?
The intervention of the analyst Aurelio Giansiracusa, animator of Ares-Osservatorio Difesa
At the moment, two very important aeronautical programs have been launched in Europe due to the technological and operational implications that they will entail both for the industry and for the Aeronautics that will use the respective final products.
We are obviously talking about the Tempest, launched by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on which Italy and Sweden have merged, and the FCAS / Scaf, a program launched on the initiative of France and Germany to which Spain subsequently joined.
Therefore, the main aerospace industrial groups of the European continent have "found an outlet" in two programs that apparently seem perfectly superimposable but which in reality will have only a few aspects that, in the far future, could become common.
Let's start with the needs of the Air Force. For convenience, let's start with the FCAS / Scaf program; here we find the French, German and Spanish Air Forces all united by the lack of a fifth generation aircraft which in the West means the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter at the center of a colossal construction and sales program between the United States, NATO, Middle Eastern and Asian allies. None of these three Air Forces, for different reasons (some of a mere protectionist-nationalist order, others for political reasons) wanted or was able to purchase the F-35 and find themselves having to manage technical-operational situations that in some cases have become heavy. to manage.
With the exception of France which, thanks to the constantly updated Rafale (the next step F4 promises to allow the aircraft new advanced operational capabilities), also thanks to the unexpectedly late sales success, manages to "plug" the situation, the position of Germany and Spain whose attack components, including for NATO nuclear uses, are suffering from problems due to the obsolescence of the Panavia Tornado IDS aircraft whose operational deployment began forty years ago and the EF-18 Hornets, which have been out of production for decades and now reached the end of their technical-operational life.
The interest of these three Aeronautics is, therefore, focused on obtaining "rapid" times, bearing in mind that speed is relative in the aeronautical military sector for important programs that require between the drafting of the initial design and the achievement of the IOC (Operational Capacity Initial) a quantifiable period of time between fifteen and twenty years (if there are no problems hindering development). So, the problem for Germany and Spain is how to "get by" at least until 2035.
Berlin is considering the purchase of about forty Boeing F / A-18E / F Super Hornets in the Advanced III version to which to add about twenty EA-18G Growler, the electronic warfare and radar suppression version of the Super Hornet as " gap filler "or, alternatively, a new tranche of Eurofighter aircraft with accentuated attack tasks that would be added to the 38 new Eurofighters (a sort of Tranche 4) ordered under the Quadriga program to Airbus to replace an equal number of Eurofighter Tranche 1 mainly for air defense tasks. In the meantime, while awaiting the new government that should take office after the electoral round that will renew the Bundestag with the appointment of the new Chancellor in place of Angela Merkel, the Defense has launched a program for the maintenance in operational conditions of about eighty Tornado IDS, a program that will absorb about 6.8 billion euros and will allow (at least in the intentions) to fly these aircraft at least until 2035, allowing the problem of certification of the nuke B63 bomb to be moved over time to an aircraft other than the F-35A .
Madrid does not sail in gold so it either follows Germany in the purchase of a certain number of Super Hornets or places an order with Airbus for a new batch of Eurofighter Typhoons with strong multi-role capabilities to replace the now aging Hornets. If anything, for Madrid the F35 speech could open for the replacement of the VSTOL Harrier II Plus aircraft supplied to the Armada that uses them from the flight deck of the Juan Carlos I amphibious assault unit.
London and Rome, on the other hand, do not have the problem of renewing the attack line in “rapid” times because they are respectively I and II level partners of the F-35 JSF program. Leaving aside the London choices for the B version, the short take-off and vertical landing of the F-35, as well as the Italic controversies on the F-35Bs at Aeronautica (which also uses the conventional version A) and the Navy, what matters is that the two Aeronautics (RAF and AMI) have put on line and already employed in operations on the skies NATO and in the Middle East (the RAF) these latest generation aircraft which have brought about a decisive change of mentality and management of operations, since the F35 it presents itself as a weapon system that integrates a whole series of technologies that places it in a different position compared to all the aircraft engaged today by the European Air Forces.
This change of pace and operational mentality allows the two Air Forces to manage the transition from 4.5 and 5th generation fighters to 6th generation fighters without having to consider any gap fillers.
From here, different timings are already born for the two European programs, because the FCAS / Scaf will have to be online by 2035 while for the Tempest we are talking about 2040 onwards also because RAF and AMI are updating, albeit in a different way (at the moment ), the Typhoon fighters supplied that should be replaced, in the intentions, starting from 2040 by the Tempests. Sweden for its part is building the new version of the Gripen, the E, which allows the replacement of the older and less performing C version of the Saab fighter-bomber in the ranks of the Royal Air Force.
Can this difference in time create problems for a possible merger of the two programs? Obviously yes, because the timing of the British-Italian-Swedish program is more relaxed and allows the development of technologies that should be more mature than those of the Franco-German-Spanish aircraft. We recall, in fact, that by 2027 or at the latest by 2028, the flight of the FCAS / Scaf technology demonstrator is scheduled to take flight the main technologies developed for the new aircraft, this to "shorten" development times. and to "avoid negative surprises". For its part, BAE Systems and Leonardo (with Saab more in the background) are developing modernized systems for the Typhoon that will serve as a starting point for the Tempest which will adopt a spiral development program like that of the F-35. Therefore, we are faced with completely different approaches adopted by the two business clusters.
But how is the current situation on the "field"? We always start from the FCAS / Scaf program; recently, the 3rd agreement was signed between the Ministries of Defense of France, Germany and Spain which allows to accelerate the development and construction of the technology demonstrator and inject new resources essential for the continuation of the program. In addition to this political / economic agreement, the respective industrial agreements between Dassault, Airbus, Indra, Thales, Hensoldt and Safran (the main companies involved) and the one between the Aeronautics involved, which as part of this new step, have "refined "The common requirements, an indispensable step to allow the industrial sector to be able to respond to the needs of customers.
In the other "field of arms" what happened? The UK put an additional £ 250 million into the program in initial development; at the same time in Italy, in the Multiannual Defense Planning Document for 2021-2023, the Tempest appeared in the new programs with guaranteed financing (at least in the period covered by the new DPP) with a decisive change of pace compared to the previous DPP where the Tempest it was included among the needs to be financed and was part of the upgrades concerning the Typhoon.
In addition, the British Minister of Defense in the parliamentary "question-time" reiterated, upon specific request, that the Tempest is a program aimed at giving life exclusively to a land-based aircraft, barring (if it were still needed ) the way to those who were talking about a possible version embarked on the new Queen Elizabeth and Prince of Wales aircraft carriers of the Royal Navy.
For its part, the Royal Navy has launched a research program for catapults capable of launching aircraft with a maximum assisted take-off weight of 25 tons but they will be drones and not piloted aircraft, because the use of the F-35Bs is foreseen. they will receive state-of-the-art updates, until at least 2050-2060. Here we are connected to the FCAS / Scaf program which instead provides for an embarked version of the new aircraft that will have to operate from the deck of the new nuclear-powered aircraft carrier of the Marine Nationale whose program was "launched" by the French Government this year and which will see the ship in the water and operational around 2035, in time to embark the new aircraft.
Another novelty that should not be underestimated is that Rolls Royce will participate in the program for the development of the engines for the new Japanese superiority aircraft and this will have a certain effect on the development of the Tempest engines, a program that is also "offered" from London to Tokyo. on a participatory level.
What can be the points of contact and in common between the two programs?
Surely, the point of contact is represented by Mbda which is present in both groupings albeit with the different national divisions. Mbda will supply the main weapon systems and it is presumable (dare I say logical) that on, at least this point, convergence will be found. Thanks to the Meteor program, the long-range missile already developed by Mbda and which arms the British, German, Italian, Spanish Typhoons, the French Rafale and the Swedish Gripen already exists. A case? Maybe not but it's definitely a great start at least to converge on weapon systems.
Another important point on which the programs could converge could be represented by the development and fine-tuning of drones (now real combat aircraft controlled remotely or better by the pilot of the FCAS / Scaf and Tempest) which will have to operate alone, in " swarm ”with other identical aircraft and in formation with the piloted aircraft. These drones will be real force multipliers that will allow 6th generation aircraft to operate in increasingly complex multi-domain operational scenarios, allowing pilots to engage multiple targets and threats at the same time, making more and more use of the AI or Artificial Intelligence of which these aircraft (including 6th generation aircraft) will be extensively equipped.
For the rest, at present it is difficult to think that the two programs can merge because intergovernmental agreements, industrial agreements and the same requirements of the Aeronautics should be re-discussed. A scenario if not impossible because in politics the saying “never say never” always applies, objectively unlikely to be realized because the programs have started and resources have already been allocated. The problem of such a scenario would be to completely redefine the industrial roles with evident steps backwards of all the industrial groups involved in the company, questioning their respective shares and value of the participatory work.
Moreover, in the absence of a large industrial reassembly in Europe (with the United Kingdom) it is quite difficult to think that an agreement can be reached between Bae, Dassault, Leonardo, Airbus, Saab, Indra, Thales, Hensoldt, Elettronica, Rolls Royce and Safran, each tending to maintain their respective positions, rather than to sell shares in their respective programs.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/innovazione/non-solo-mbda-quali-sono-le-convergenze-parallele-tra-tempest-e-fcas/ on Sun, 12 Sep 2021 05:13:04 +0000.