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How much will Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Mps, Bper, Banco Bper and Credem really pay with the new tax?

How much will Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Mps, Bper, Banco Bper and Credem really pay with the new tax?

Tax on the so-called extra margins of banks: the discussions in the government, the clarification of the Treasury, the effects on the Stock Exchange and the updated estimates of analysts and economists on the real impact of the decree on the financial statements of Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Mps, Bper, Banco Bper, Believe and beyond

Full forward, or rather no: reverse. The tax on the so-called extra margins (“unjust”, according to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni) in the majority and in the government there is still no regulatory and economic clarity. And there are also political discussions within the majority. While after the Ministry of Economy's partial clarification on the scope of the tax, analysts update estimates and scenarios on the impact of the law and on how much credit institutions such as Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Mps, Bper, Banco Bper and Credem will really pay.

Here are facts, numbers and insights.

WHAT TAJANI SAYS ABOUT THE DECREE WITH THE TAX ON BANKS

Proof of the internal government debate are today's words from Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani (Forza Italia) who, after having defended the decree staunchly by espousing theses, announcements and arguments during the post-ministerial press conference, now says: "We do not we are against the banks, above all we are thinking of cooperative and popular credit banks, we are working in the interests of savers. Right now the banks have to play their part in an overall plan but it would be short-sighted and harmful to our economic system to hit them indiscriminately. For this you need to write the standard well. The terrain is very delicate and no punitive spirit towards anyone motivates us”, underlines the vice president of the council in an interview with the Giornale . The revenues that will be obtained, he explains, "must be used to help citizens pay their mortgages, to protect savings and use them to increase wages to make them really rich, to reduce the tax burden, to detax thirteenths, overtime and of production". The rule, he reiterates, "must be written well and it would have been better to do everything in closed markets, in any case we will monitor in Parliament so that everything is done in the best possible way".

THE CLARIFICATION OF THE TREASURY TO CALM THE THINGS AT THE TOP BANKS

The day after the approval of the decree by the council of ministers, and the explanations from Salvini and Tajani, the Treasury decided to issue a "clarification" – in fact a third version of the law – which explained that the tax on profits of the banks generated by the increase in ECB rates will not be able to exceed 0.1% of the assets of individual institutions, a much lower share than the 25% of net assets initially identified as the maximum levy threshold. "A handful of lines, essential for defining and reducing the magnitude of the bloodletting, arrived at closed markets, when, however, by now the damage to the credibility of the entire banking system (and not only) in the eyes of international investors was done", he commented today il Sole 24 ore: " In short, in the end the tax on the "extra-profits" of Italian banks will not be in the order of those 4-5 billion expected by many analysts, who had made the calculations on the basis of the indications disseminated by the Government in Monday evening. It will be much more contained: it will not go beyond 2-2.5 billion euros for the entire banking system, and perhaps even less. In practice, a tax more than halved compared to forecasts”.

THE REBOUND OF BANKS IN THE STOCK EXCHANGE

The different impact for banks compared to the first announced version of the decree had repercussions on the Stock Exchange: the Italian banking index gained 3.68% (+1% the European "cousin") reducing liabilities to -3.7% weekly and dragging the general index upwards (+1.3%). Since the beginning of the year, Milanese bank stocks have risen by 28%, second only to those in the "basic resources" sector (+50%). Result : UniCredit recovered 1.8 billion, Intesa Sanpaolo 997 million, Finecobank 531 million, Banco Bpm 331 million, Banca Mediolanum 159 million, Mediobanca 102 million, Bper 79 million, Mps 77 million and Banca Generali 50 million.

SIMULATIONS ON THE IMPACTS FOR BANCA GENERALI AND CREDEM

After the first estimates , new assessments are now emerging: “We did a simulation on the accounts of Credem, one of the most solid and profitable banks in Europe, with a substantially national scope that is easier to analyze (although it is partially misleading to analyze the consolidated financial statements) – wrote the analyst and accountant Giuseppe Liturri in the newspaper La Verità – and we have estimated that, if in the second half of 2023 the interest margin were equal to that of the first, the surcharge would amount to 216 million. But with the roof, pulled like a rabbit out of a hat by Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, it drops to around 65 million. Just under half of the taxes levied on the group in 2022 and a fraction of the 299 million net profit in the first half of 2023. Banca Generali, to give another example, declared an impact of just under 20 million".

REPORTS ON THE EFFECTS OF THE BANKS TAX

Il Sole 24 Ore reported the new forecasts contained in some reports by analysts and investment banks: “According to Jefferies' estimates, the average impact of the withdrawal should be around 30 basis points of quality capital (CET1 ratio) for the top 10 Italian banks, "half of what was foreseen in the previous scenario in which the ceiling had not been foreseen". UBS analysts estimate a total drain of around 1.9 billion in aggregate terms for the main eight Italian banks, each of which is destined to make a case for itself, given that the size and the increase in the margin are different. interest, on which the 40% rate is applied. The capital erosion deriving from the Executive tax could be around 6% for UniCredit to rise to 15-16% for BancoBpm, with Mediobanca and Intesa Sanpaolo in the intermediate range between 9 and 12%. Intesa, for example, would find itself disbursing around 877 million, UniCredit 436, Banco Bpm 190, Bper 152. The other banks would have to manage a capital reduction of around 5-9%, figures that are in any case far from the previous 20-27%”.

Yesterday Bankitalia updated the data on bank assets, which will act as the maximum "ceiling": 3,818 billion in June. Today the maximum withdrawal would be 3.81 billion (but the end-2023 figure counts). “In the recount of various analysts, including Intermonte and Kepler – wrote the newspaper la Repubblica – the tax for listed banks would be between 6% and 16% of 2023 profits: around 900 million Intesa Sanpaolo (-11%), 440 Unicredit, 200 Banco Bpm (-15%), 150 Bper (-14%) and 120 Mps (-13%). Figures disclosed with more relief yesterday, which could even leave the promises made to bank shareholders unchanged, equal to remuneration around 10% against over 20 billion in profits in 2023. But Italian bankers plan to further reduce, in the process of the decree , the disbursement, compared to the 3.8 billion of the "ceiling", in line with the MEF technicians who estimate receipts of 2-2.5 billion"


This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/quanto-pagheranno-davvero-intesa-sanpaolo-unicredit-mps-bper-banco-bper-e-credem/ on Thu, 10 Aug 2023 07:29:05 +0000.