The state of the West seen by a French Swiss banker
Numbers, comparisons and scenarios on the USA, EU and China. Riccardo Ruggeri's Cameo
A few weeks later, a new dinner in the usual grotto in Mendrisiotto, with the usual menu, but with a mutual commitment: not to talk, not only about the Ukrainian war, but not even about the one with Hamas (for both, from our point of view, we are still in a magmatic state).
My Swiss banker friend XY, leaving for a trip to the East, this time wants to give me his specific analysis on Europe, and not the usual overview of the globe.
I remember that XY at the time I knew him (1990s) was one of the few Swiss elites against Switzerland's accession to Europe, when Europe was in good health and Switzerland was in an economic crisis: he had a high unemployment and declining turnover. All the parties were in favor of entry into the European economic space (with the exception of the UDC, the right-wing party, the peasants, with the plebeian tribune Christoph Blocher, who would later become the first Swiss party) and all the media, all the financial, banking and industrial establishment, for which everyone predicted an easy victory.
Instead, the Swiss "plebeians" went to vote en masse, participation was close to 80%, and NO won, albeit by just 23,000 votes, with the French-speaking cantons at 70% for YES. Thanks to its Plebs (since the fall of the Wall, it had understood that Western peoples are clearly more "strategists" than their miserable elites), today Switzerland is the richest country in the world. With less than 10 million inhabitants, it ranks twentieth in the world in terms of GDP. “If Switzerland had joined Europe, it would now be just any Belgium,” XY often repeats.
THE DIFFICULTIES OF EUROPE
XY gave some numbers, on which we should, he says, judge the "competent" people who govern us. In 2008, just 15 years ago, Europe had a GDP of $16.2 billion compared to $14.7 billion in the United States, while China's data was not significant. Today the United States has a GDP of 25 thousand billion, China of 23 thousand billion (overtaking will arrive before 2030) and Europe (without the UK) of just 16.7 thousand billion. Then the Franc was exchanged with the Euro at 1.60, today at 0.946.
In the coming years, Europe's position will become even more critical, because it is absent in new technologies, the car industry (we were number one) is now China-dependent (will the luxury segment remain?), the other industries that remain they are highly energy intensive but, with the sanctions resulting from the war, they have lost their main asset: the low prices and high quality of Russian gas (today they are supplied with the embarrassing American gas which costs three or four times more or with the liquefied one, partly Qatari and Russian).
Confirmation of Europe's irreversible decline is demonstrated by the fact that it is now dominant only in the luxury industry and lifestyle activities. As in the third century AD, when Rome declined in military power and state wealth, but life in the ZTL of the ruling classes was highly refined and elegant, albeit morally corrupt. Exactly like today. This is the ZTL scenario of the Europe of the future, which we have entered with unfortunate boldness.
THE WEST AND THE GLOBAL SOUTH
Other interesting numbers on the United States and China.
To get around the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, and enthusiastically confirmed by Joe Biden, Chinese exports to the United States fell by 15% from 2017 to 2022, but in the meantime Chinese exports to Southeast Asian countries have exploded (Indonesia , Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, etc.). It's just a stage, then the Chinese product formally changes its colors and arrives in Europe and the United States under another name.
The financial wizards of the G7 have not yet understood that these intermediate countries, with such ridiculous games, will become more and more dependent on the Chinese Dragon and the West will increasingly lose the political and economic influence created over the centuries. The same little game occurs for the countries of the so-called " Global South ", i.e. Africa.
The conclusions of cultural. We are governed by super mastered, yet trivially inept individuals, convinced however that they are omniscient. Here in Switzerland the super CEOs of Anglo-Saxon origin, with bonuses and stock options, have devoured a jewel bank like Credit Suisse. The later we get rid of it, the worse it will be for us.”
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/occidente-sud-globale-ruggeri/ on Sun, 22 Oct 2023 04:56:44 +0000.