Spain: Sanchez’s PSOE can choose between early elections and dissolve the Spanish state
The Spanish elections have left an extremely confusing situation that could even lead to the implosion of Spain as we know it.
Summarizing the election result:
- the EPP and VOX won 136 and 33 seats, for a total of 169 combined. The EPP in particular achieved the third historical result;
- The EPP can create a coalition which, at most, can reach 171 votes out of a majority of 176;
- The PSOE can try to get 172 votes
- Pudjemnts' breakaway party, Junts, has 7 seats, needed by both parties;
Pudjemont has set two conditions to support a possible government:
- amnesty for him and the other members of his party, currently in exile in Brussels, thanks to the election to the European Parliament, but who would be arrested if they returned to Spain;
- a new referendum on the independence of Catalonia, this time agreed with the Spanish government
These two alternatives are unacceptable to the EPP which would instantly lose the support of VOX. Only talk of an independence referendum would push the leader of VOX, Abascal, to leave the coalition. Then the ball passes to the field of the PSOE, of the socialists, who are already allied with numerous autonomist parties, starting with the Basque one.
If a government agreement is not reached, the only alternative is early voting, probably to be held in December. Elections, seen as an almost absolute evil in Italy, are not a problem in Spain.
So Sanchez has two alternatives right now:
- go to early elections, with the risk that this time the voters give the EPP+VOX coalition the handful of seats it needs to govern;
- agree with Junts and grant what they want.
The first option is risky from a political point of view, the second is suicidal for Spain as a state entity: in fact, the result of the referendum, conducted in this way, would have a great chance of seeing the separatists prevail. What would keep Catalonia inside Spain at that point?
But this is the first step. If Catalonia becomes independent, why shouldn't the Basque Country do the same? Why shouldn't Murcia, or Extremadura do it? Why shouldn't Spain dissolve at that point?
Sanchez thinks he can negotiate and induce Junts to some political agreement, but Pudjemont based his political survival on independence, he went into exile for that, why should he give up now? Sanchez promised he would not even grant an amnesty. How can he renege on this promise now?
But Sanchez is a socialist politician, therefore willing to do anything for power. We'll see if he's willing to sacrifice his country as well.
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The article Spain: Sanchez's PSOE can choose between early elections and dissolving the Spanish state comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/spagna-il-psoe-di-sanchez-puo-scegliere-fra-elezioni-anticipate-e-sciogliere-lo-stato-spagnolo/ on Tue, 25 Jul 2023 08:00:19 +0000.