The newly re-elected president of Chad dies of war wounds
The president of Chad, Idriss Déby Itno, won in the elections on 11 April, his death was announced on 20 April. Enrico Martial's point
On 19 April, the 68-year-old president of Chad, Idriss Déby Itno, was confirmed the winner with 79.3% of the votes in the elections on 11 April, his death was announced on 20 April. It was the sixth office as president, after having repressed the opposition, modified the constitution in 2018 on the limits of the mandates, consolidated the relations of power and interest with France and the West, between military efforts at home and in the Sahel. .
A transitional military council, headed by his 39-year-old son, Mahamat Idriss Déby, assumed government functions for 18 months. Idriss Déby has been in power for thirty years, since December 4, 1990, after having thrown out Hissène Habré, now to life imprisonment in Senegal for crimes against humanity.
According to the main reconstruction, he died of injuries sustained over the weekend, perhaps Saturday, in the Kanem region, 300 km from the capital N'Djamena. He would find himself together with army forces clashing with the rebels of the “Front for alternation and harmony in Chad” (FACT). He had started out as a soldier, and nurtured this posture, recognized by all, with the habit of reaching places of conflict, where he actually took command.
Four elements must be underlined for this event, which marks a watershed for Chad and the Sahel, between jihadism, poverty and natural resources, political instability, Western and half-world interventions.
AFTER IDRISS DÉBY, A MATURE POLITICAL ALTERNANCE UNLIKELY
The first is internal. Idriss Déby chased a bloodthirsty dictator with the help of France and the United States in 1990, precisely Hissène Habré, who was also helped by France and the United States in the conflict with Libya, in particular between 1983 and 1986. He established a less bloody system, but always in accordance with the prejudice against African autocracies, with a narrow ruling elite, a fragile economy, development difficulties, corruption, global interests in natural resources or geographical position, repression of the opposition, puppet candidates for elections to save form. Barring surprises, we do not see a mature alternation to the current political context, neither in the protests in front of the Chadian embassy in Paris, nor in the internal context and local personalities, nor in an alleged group capable of a conspiracy, of which at the moment there are no traces. Rather, a continuity is looming, drawn on the figure of the son and on the current ruling military circle, however fragile and provisional.
A POSITION OF GEOPOLITICAL RETURN BASED ON INSTABILITY
The second element is geopolitical, because Idriss Déby enjoyed for thirty years a position of income favored by the instability of Chad, exposed both to rebel raids from Libya and to the growth of jihadism at home, in the Sahel and in all countries. neighbors. This paradoxically put the country's government in a privileged position.
Chad is more stable than its neighboring quasi-bankrupt states, although a rebel raid directed to the capital was stopped only by the French air intervention in 2019, while in 2008 it had reached the walls of the presidential palace. However, the Chadian army is better in comparison with its neighbors, both for the training actions received and for the relative experience in the field. Everyone turned a blind eye to this latest sixth phony re-election, given that after hesitating, Idriss Déby had secured a force of 1,200 men in the jihadist conflict zone between Niger, Mali and Burkina in 2020. This “geopolitical” position of income will not fail, and it is an opportunity for those who will take the reins of the country from within.
FRANCE LOSES A COURAGEOUS FRIEND BUT IS WORRIED
The third element to consider is in France , which "loses a brave friend" in the words of the Elysée, and "an ally in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel", according to the French defense minister, Florence Parly, who governs the French air base and the headquarters of Operation Barkhane in Fort-Lamy, near the capital N'Djamena.
The point is that the disappearance of Idriss Déby, however autocratic, adds a new problem to the Western and French attempt to regain control over the instability of the Sahel. France is confronted with financial difficulties, that is the cost borne by a single country, military (5100 soldiers plus means) and political difficulties, with reported "collateral" damage to civilians under observation by the UN and NGOs, as possible errors in the bombing , or allegations of rape by Chadian soldiers.
We really missed the death of the Chadian president, in this jihadist crisis. The context has not so far been favorable, due to the resurgence of the attacks, due to the disengagement announced by Trump on the US role, fundamental on information and support, due to the presence of other actors, such as China, due to the difficulty in European involvement, to which this is due to the Takuba task force, to which three Belgian soldiers have joined in these days.
With the death of Idriss Déby, there are concerns about the current ruling class of the country that hosts the headquarters of the Barkhane operation. One thinks of the risk of a collapse from a failed state or in any case serious deficiencies in the state organization, and is therefore reflected in the coming months.
GEOGRAPHY DOES NOT HELP
The fourth element to consider is structural and geographical. The country is difficult to separate from instability and external terrestrial threats, people and goods cannot stop at a physically delimited border. Going north from the capital N'Djamena, the desert and the rarefaction of the human presence make the concept of a blurred border, with an area between Libya, Niger and Chad that allows illegal routes and the presence of organized military groups, the "permanent rebellion". They are also hostile to state authority, for example in the lunar Tibesti mountains, 350 km on each side, where the summit of Emi Koussi reaches 3415 meters above sea level.
In those parts a young French archaeologist was held hostage for 33 months, a national case at the time of Giscard d'Estaing in the seventies, then told in the film "The prisoner of the Desert" by Raymond Depardon.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/il-presidente-del-ciad-appena-rieletto-muore-per-ferite-di-guerra/ on Wed, 21 Apr 2021 08:52:30 +0000.