What will happen to NHS staff
Thanks to the pandemic, in 2021 the total number of NHS personnel increased compared to 2019, however, the blockage of turnover in the Regions in the plan to return has led to a decrease in permanent staff and family doctors are forced to manage more and more patients. All the details of the report of the National Agency for Regional Health Services (Agenas)
The personnel of the National Health Service (NHS), from 2019 to 2021, grew by around 21 thousand units reaching 670,566 employees, while general practitioners (GPs) increased from 42,428 in 2019 to 40,250 in 2021.
This data is reported by the National Agency for Regional Health Services (Agenas) which has carried out a specific study on the personnel of the NHS.
SSN PERSONNEL NUMBERS
Among the various aspects that emerge from the NHS staff report, we learn that in 2021 the employees amounted to 670,566 units, of which 68.7% were women and 31.3% were men. The total is therefore increased by 6,097 units compared to 2020 and by 21,223 compared to 2019.
THE COMPOSITION
Also in 2021, there were 108,250 doctors in service in the NHS, while there were 137 dentists. The managerial health personnel consisted of 127,424 units, which brought the total number of managerial and non-managing health personnel to 476,359.
There were 279,837 units with a nursing profile, 41.7% of the total NHS personnel. Non-executive health personnel with profiles other than nursing consisted of 69,098 units, which added to the nursing health personnel reached a total of 348,935.
TURNOVER RATE
Following the blockage of turnover in the Regions with a recovery plan and the hiring containment measures also adopted in other Regions (with the constraint on expenditure), the permanent staff of the NHS has decreased sharply in recent years.
As at 31 December 2018, the number of permanent personnel was approximately 25,000 fewer than in 2012 (approximately 41,400 compared to 2008). Between 2012 and 2017, the number of permanent employees (health, technical, professional and administrative) employed by the Local Health Authorities, hospitals, universities and public IRCCS decreased from 653,000 to 626,000 units, a drop equal to just under 27 thousand units (4%).
There was an increase in personnel in the years 2020-2021 following "also the mandatory effect given by the pandemic situation" which brought the number of units in service to 2021 comparable to that of 2012.
In 2020, the emergency situation also caused personnel costs to increase by 5.40% compared to 2018.
THE PENSION "HUMP"
The continuation of the hiring freeze until 2018 in the Regions in the recovery plan, in addition to the negative turnover rate, have caused an increase in the average age of professionals with an impact on retirement. In fact, there are around 29,331 doctors employed by the NHS who will retire in the five-year period 2022-2027, while retirements for nursing staff are estimated at 21,050.
FORECASTS ON HOW MANY DOCTORS AND NURSES THERE WILL BE IN 2026
The Agenas estimates on the specialist medical personnel who will be trained in 2026 predict that the number of new specialists in the NHS (75% of the total) will be equal to 39,244, about 10 thousand more than the number of pensioners and in any case higher even taking into consideration resignation data.
As regards nurses, also taking into account the 75% successful completion rate of the Nursing course, Agenas estimates that their number of trained in 2026 and available from 2027 will be approximately 61,760.
HOW MANY DOCTORS AND NURSES EMIGRATED ABROAD
According to OECD data cited by Agenas, in the last three years available – 2019, 2020 and 2021 – 21,397 doctors and 15,109 nurses were abroad (the data for Germany is missing where, according to other estimates, around 2,700 Italian nurses are at work) . From 2000 to 2018, emigration abroad gradually increased, especially in the years immediately following the freeze on contracts and the first blocks in turnover.
However, after the Covid emergency, the flow of doctors and nurses who have chosen to work outside Italy seems to have decreased, probably due to the recruitment phase implemented by the Regions to fill the gaps. In 2021, in fact, there were just over 4,000 doctors abroad against about double in previous years, while around 3,800 nurses emigrated abroad against 6,000 in previous years.
GPs are decreasing but are caring for more and more patients
From 2019 to 2021, the number of GPs decreased by 2,178 units and that of Free Choice Pediatricians (PLS) by 386 units. If the number of family doctors decreases, the number of patients assisted by each one increases.
In fact, the data indicate a decrease in GPs from 42,428 in 2019 with an average of 1,224 assists per GP to 40,250 GPs in 2021 with an average ratio of 1,237 assists per doctor.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/sanita/fatti-e-previsioni-sul-personale-del-ssn/ on Mon, 10 Apr 2023 05:20:48 +0000.