Who will count more and who will count less in the EU Parliament (and what will happen to the Ursula majority)
The outcome of the European elections and the scenarios for the European Commission. Luca Picotti's analysis
The fact that the old majority can be replicated in the EU does not contradict the reading on the shift to the right of the political axis.
First of all, the winner is an EPP different from that of 2019, starting from the hardening on some issues such as immigration and the environment. The growth of conservative and 'sovereignist' parties is undeniable and is especially notable for the results in the main countries: the solidity of Meloni, the victory of Le Pen , AfD percentages. The extra seats are few, but they matter.
The traditional left remains almost at a standstill: it maintains its hard core, especially in Italy and Spain, but there is no real growth sufficient to increase its bargaining power. The popular ones have the game in hand, confirming themselves as the dominant force with the most seats.
To the left of the traditional left nothing is moving or people are celebrating with minority numbers. From the Melenchon galaxy to Sumar, the most radical demands do not take hold. The left is currently stuck in the hard core of the traditional-moderate left (PSE).
The shift to the right is driven above all by two issues: immigration and the environment. It is no coincidence that among the two real losers – who lost the most seats – we have the Greens. From 2019 of Greta to 2024 of tractors. Hence the shift towards green deals, primarily by the EPP.
Consequently, even if an Ursula majority is replicated, the world has changed since 2019. And the pressure on the right cannot be overlooked. For this reason, beyond the numbers, the cover of the Economist is not so far-fetched (and neither is the Meloni formula).
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/chi-contera-di-piu-e-chi-contera-di-meno-nel-parlamento-ue-e-cosa-succedera-alla-maggioranza-ursula/ on Thu, 13 Jun 2024 14:22:54 +0000.