Political scenarios after the Conte government. The intervention of Walter Galbusera
Rebirth Plan, Social Pact, finally States General: the magic formulas of the head of government are wasted to seek (without luck) unity of purpose not only with the opposition forces and with the social partners, but also among the parties of the majority. Waiting to clarify what these initiatives mean in the meantime, en attendant Godot, things stand still.
Fortunately, there is Europe, first of all the ECB which buys our government bonds in abundance, the resources deployed with Sure, Mes, EIB and with a Recovery Fund even if still to be defined.
The magnitude of these figures is considerable and should not cause surprise or indignation if the EU itself, and the partners that make it up, want to know first how the States intend to use the resources (loans or lost funds) and then how they spend them.
But since the timing of disbursement of European funds will not be very short, we will have to start using the resources that we actually have today with the awareness that, if government measures were to delay or prove ineffective, our country will face a very difficult autumn . It is clear that the assistance interventions will have to continue also in 2021 but it is difficult to think that it is enough to prohibit layoffs by law to guarantee employment beyond the short term.
Things change quickly, like the approval ratings of the leaders, and this explains well the anxiety that winds through the Democratic Party, the only political force that has a national structure organized throughout the country, partly inherited from the old PCI, able to quickly perceive the diffusion and aggravation of uncomfortable situations.
We have known for some time what things are wrong with our country, just as it is very clear that today a true "Social Pact" must be founded on change and that a recovery of our economy without reforms is impossible. Unfortunately, these reforms are generally unwelcome to the (transversal) majority of a sovereign-populist Parliament which, rightly or wrongly, does not want to risk losing consensus. It is no coincidence that among the parties of the majority, the idea emerged of modifying the electoral law proportionally, which may not displease a part of the opposition.
In emergency situations, it is normal for a government, as has happened several times in the past, to ask for the contribution of the opposition, but convergence in Parliament, the only legitimate seat to decide, should take place on some courageous choices that clearly break with the past. From this point of view, the catalog of priority objectives is rich. Such should be the interventions that qualify the institutions (starting from the school) for transparency, responsibility and meritocracy, reduce bureaucracy by establishing that everything that is not expressly prohibited is allowed, abolish the crime of abuse of office and guarantee the indemnity to bank officials for the granting of "Covid" loans, realistically address the tax issue by redistributing only the result of the fight against tax evasion, encourage productivity growth (incentives for company bargaining and for high-tech investments), relaunch research , public works (Genoa model) and private ones (110% incentive restructuring model), reorganize a social security system that risks collapsing (abolition of one hundred shares) and a welfare system that is now out of control (tied citizenship and layoffs) vocational training and acceptance of job offers).
All in the context of a recovery of the European integration process and a gradual transfer of sovereignty to the EU starting from fiscal policy.
Of course, Giuseppe Conte's government can keep going, which, as Giulio Andreotti would have said, is always better than going. But the combined disposition of the passage of time and an insufficient recovery of economic activity could bring out an iceberg of social anger, a "dark autumn" far more insidious than an opposition that, at the moment, does not seem to have very clear ideas.
The role of the social partners remains important even if the workers' confederations seem to have learned little from the crisis while the Confindustria of Bonomi , which has shown determination, could become the main political referent of an economic system in serious difficulty that urgently needs concrete answers .
One thing is certain: if the economy does not recover, the emergence of new protest movements and new leaderships cannot be ruled out, with indecipherable but potentially dangerous identities, the expression of a social area that unites the traditional marginalized to that part of the class. medium depleted by the crisis.
At present, the emergence of an emergency government which, with an authoritative and recognized prestige figure, widens the current majority and proposes to implement a "minimum program" to reduce the impact of the crisis, favor the recovery, seems impossible. and prepare for future election appointments in a less poisoned climate.
The majority will try, as far as possible, to avoid the dissolution of the Chambers, but not at any cost. If the outcome of the "General States" produces a "dream book" instead of clear and effective interventions that can quickly give results, the shareholders of "Count 2", if they do not want to run the risk of disastrous attrition, will have to quickly consider early political elections.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/ci-saranno-elezioni-anticipate/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=ci-saranno-elezioni-anticipate on Fri, 12 Jun 2020 04:40:13 +0000.